Just did the math based on the ESPN win probability. The odds Toledo/Buffalo/WMU all win is 13.8864%. So pretty, much assuming Miami win, we have a 86.1136% chance to get to Detroit
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Updated my sheet with the MAC scenario numbers and the MAC provided opponents where the magical Sports Score Analytics rank is used. Big update is the magic number likes Toledo so their odds (and our chances of playing them) has gone way up. The ESPN win %s updated slightly as well.
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Playing with fire a bit, but are we sure we want EMU to win tomorrow? We’d control our own destiny, but we’d very likely be playing Toledo and almost certainly playing either Toledo or Ohio. A WMU win would guarantee them as the potential opponent and we’d still be in with a win barring an unlikely string of events.
We owe both of them so yes that would be more fun.
I’m all for whatever gets us to Detroit. At 3:30 on Saturday afternoon, the goal is to be celebrating a win over Ball State AND a trip to Ford Field. We can worry about the opponent later.
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=>I am not sure WMU is not better than Toledo or Ohio.
Miami is underdog against anyone besides CMU.
Toledo looks tough. I probably think OhiO and Western are pretty even. The history of us playing rematches in the MAC title game is that usually the opposite of the regular season game happens
also western would probably bring the biggest crowd to Detroit (which is neat and bad)
AND a 5th straight win for the Wolverines in The Game.
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I’m confident we can beat anyone else, but I want no part of Toledo.
If WMU wins, all it takes is UB knocking off OU in Buffalo (only a 6.5 pt dog), and Toledo winning (a 10.5 pt favorite) and we sit at home.
Priority 1 is getting in the game, and EMU winning gives us the win and in. I’ll worry about who we play once the game is set.
And as good as Toledo has looked, I think we played well on defense against them and it only got out of hand because our offense was literally unable to do anything. The offense just was totally inept. I think we win that game by double digits with Thomas and would welcome the chance to prove it.
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Is it right the game notes are only one page this week?
I have brought this to the attention of the powers that be and if it isn’t corrected post haste heads will roll!!
So, if I’m reading all this correctly, our best-case scenario starts Friday with Ohio beating Buffalo, right?
And, if so, then it’s a good thing that Ohio plays first on Friday and Toledo plays the next day, right?
Because, Ohio still has something to play for Friday (in terms of the MAC Championship).
Beat Buffalo, and then root against Toledo.
But, if Toledo were to have played first, and won, putting aside finishing with a solid record and maybe getting to a better bowl, Ohio would have been perhaps less motivated to win against Buffalo, right?
Root for EMU to upset WMU tonight.
If WMU wins, root for OU to beat UB.
If WMU & UB both win, then we need CMU to upset Toledo. (If OU wins, the CMU/UT result is irrelevant).
And we obviously need to beat BSU, but that would be the case regardless of the conference standings.
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Yes, the order of games means there are two shots to make our game a win and in and Toledo/CMU meaningless to us. EMU wins tonight, we just have to win. OU wins on Friday, we just have to win.
Otherwise, we have to scoreboard watch and hope CMU pulls it off while we get our Redbird Trophy.
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I have read the entirety of this thread and still don’t understand how we can go to the championship game if we end in a tie with two teams that beat us. Head to head doesn’t matter?
Except Crum,Walker and Hoeppner weren’t dealing with Covid,then NIL.
It would in some other conferences tie break rules.
Because it comes down to common opponents. You can’t play yourself