Toledo is already up 14-0 after two drives. I don’t think we need to worry about BSU fighting for bowl eligibility next week.
The Only needed victory that worries me is Toledo at Central next Saturday. Central has 7 wins but has not beaten anyone I guess.
I have never done more scoreboard watching than I have with this title game at stake.
That is not needed if Ohio win Friday. We win a 3 way tie breaker between Miami CMU and Ohio
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I ran the stats higher in the thread on what’s best for us using the ESPN win probabilities and Toledo winning today puts us at 76% to make Detroit as opposed to around 50% if Ball St wins.
If EMU wins, we’re in with a win, nothing else matters.
If OU wins (assuming Toledo holds on today), we’re in with a win, nothing else matters.
If OU loses (assuming Toledo holds on today), that’s when we need Toledo to lose to CMU also or we can’t go.
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I am watching this game and Ball States defense is playing well and Toledos offense is making mistakes. They just had a 4th and 47 after 4 straight penalties. But Toledo defense is allowing nothing so far
Worth noting, while Toledo winning is definitely better for us, Toledo winning today does close the door on the unlikely path where Miami could still make it at 5-3 even with a loss to Ball State.
If Toledo wins today, we must beat Ball State. We probably would have to anyways, but there would no longer be any path for us at 5-3, as either Toledo or CMU will finish 6-2.
Ball State’s OL is a sieve.
Oh well I like that then. LowestGPA still struggling with the math. So we need Foledo win today, Hocking tech win next Friday then Toledo CMU game will not matter.
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=>Correct.
24-3 at half.
Toledo wins, 38-9.
Next game that matters: WMU @ EMU on Tuesday night. Let’s go EMU.
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I have to root for the Kittens? Furk.
If WMU lose Tuesday you do not
If Western loses to EMU, and we beat BSU, are we in no matter what else happens?
Yes
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So to summarize if Toledo wins Chuck gets a statute? 
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My previous scenarios for Miami that we’ve discussed are all validated by the official MAC scenarios put into this infographic. Going away from divisions may have been a mistake…
A couple of our possible opponents on my spreadsheet are off due to the crazy mysterious sports score tie breaker that wont be final until end of season, but our path doesn’t rely on it thankfully.
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The official MAC post is slightly easier to read. Pretty much there is only 1 scenario in which Miami wins and missed out which is if Buffalo beat Ohio, WMU beat EMU, and Toledo beat CMU
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Yes, we must avoid the cursed Miami/Toledo only 6-2 tie. Every other scenario where we win we go.
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