I haven’t double checked this but it seems correct.
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We have more paths than that but that is most likely one. We can win some tie breakers if WMU loses and gets thrown into the mix.
I think there are even some scenarios we move on even with a loss vs Ball State if the 2nd place tie is a bunch of 5-3 teams.
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You can play with scenarios here, and so far their math has checked out: mred's Mid-American FB Standings Generator
So far, I have not found a scenario where we don’t go as long as we are tied for 1st or 2nd with more than just UT or OU alone.
From playing around more, I can’t find a scenario where if we win and WMU loses, we don’t go through, so Western falling back is certainly good for us as that eliminates any sole ties with UT or OU.
I also didn’t find any scenarios where we don’t go if its a bunch of 5-3 teams tied for 2nd, but I find that very unlikely to occur, but at least its in our back pocket.
Yes this is correct. I know this is the MAC and anything is possible but I will have my eyes on the Toledo/CMU game. I was looking at CMU’s schedule last night and its surprisingly weak so far, even for MAC standards. Avoided us and ou so I’m wondering how good this team really is. The best MAC team they have played they lost to (WMU). Hopefully Toledo will handle business.
CMU beating Toledo is good for us. We are win and in if CMU beats Toledo.
Idiots Guide to Detroit (AKA Who should I root for?)
Priority 1 - Just Win Baby: Miami over Ball State. We aren’t in if we win. We aren’t out if we lose, but we are in threading the needle territory with a loss. Due to order of games, we will know by kick if a loss is still feasible (but would still need to scoreboard watch UT-CMU happening at same time)
Priority 2 - The Win and In: If Miami wins, we go to Detroit with EITHER an EMU win over WMU or a CMU win over Toledo. We don’t need anything from OU/UB or UT/Ball St if either of those happen
Priority 3 - Scoreboard Watching: Now it gets hairy, especially because the order of games. We don’t know if we want Toledo to beat Ball St. this Saturday. If Toledo wins out, we can be left at home if UB beats OU. If OU beats UB, we can be left at home if Toledo loses to Ball State but then beats CMU. Basically, we don’t know if we want Toledo to beat Ball State until the end of the season. We don’t know if we want OU to beat Buffalo until we know what UT does. The 3 way OU/UT tie IS good for us, so we are good if both UT and OU win out.
Priority 4 - Break in case of Emergency: If we lose to Ball State, we need everyone to end up 5-3, so we need OU to lose to UB, Ball State to beat Toledo, and then Toledo to beat CMU.
Think that covers things.
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If you click the link there is more to the thread with the whole shebang!
Pretty much, if it’s a 3+ way tie we get in, while if it’s head to head we do not
We win 2 way tie if its just us and CMU as the 6-2 tie, otherwise yes. We can only sit home if its only us and UT or us and OU at 6-2.
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The scenario I’m most worried about is Toledo wins out and Ohio lose to buffalo, as if Toledo win this weekend Ohio get eliminated and they are deflated playing a buffalo team that needs a win for a bowl. As long as Ohio wins their game we are almost certain to make it
If Toledo beats Ball St, Ohio still has a chance to make it if both Toledo and us lose in the last game. OU beats CMU in 2 way tie, so OU will have something to play for vs. UB no matter what.
Oh dang you are correct, some Ohio account posted they’d be eliminated if that happened but you are correct
I was told there wouldn’t be any math.
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https://x.com/barstoolmiamiu/status/1991553890010182062?s=46&t=ZH1fFGwu8Q0191V3SgsUtQ
They summarize it best
I declared marketing as a major as it required the least amount of math in business school.
Now I am leaning on barstool to help me through this. They do simplify.
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Y’all said you like numbers? This uses ESPN’s win probability which is probably not the best but was easiest for me to grab. 4 of the 5 most likely outcomes have Miami in Detroit
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But @mollautt told me the chance for Miami in Detroit was over 80%!
For as much as I hate the guy, we don’t beat WMU without Finn and thus aren’t in this “most feasible” position.
I also love that we’re going to win another conference title with our backup QB in Dequan’s hometown.
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