Chase For The New Year's 6

Air Force’s QB is hurt and out for a few games apparently. Obviously less impactful than other teams losing their QB, but potential for them to drop one of the next few games then.

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Air Force still has a game at Colorado State, a home game with resurgent UNLV and a regular season finale road trip to Boise ahead of them. That’s a road fraught with potholes.

Plus ARMY and NAVY

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The Virginia Attorney General wrote a letter to the NCAA complaining about James Madison being ineligible for the postseason. Charlie Baker wrote back politely telling him to eff off. I imagine the public pressure for a waiver will increase dramatically if they’re in serious contention for 12-0 and bids to the Sun Belt championship and a New Year’s 6 bowl, but they’re still ineligible for now.

https://twitter.com/Shane_DNRSports/status/1714771247609926096

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NCAA are a bunch of A HOLES

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You are correct sir!

It’s a stupid rule. They should get rid of it. If anything, it’s even more impressive that the student-athletes can jump to the higher division and still compete for conference titles (and beyond) almost immediately. But right now, it is still the rule. Every program knows about it well before trying to make the jump.

Merrimack men’s basketball wasn’t eligible to go to March Madness this past spring. Merrimack won the NEC tournament… and then watched Fairleigh Dickinson (the team Merrimack beat in the conference title game) get the “automatic “ bid and win the play-in game. FDU, as a 16-seed, then upset #1 Purdue. Meanwhile, Merrimack’s players were back at their dorms twiddling their thumbs. Teams have been screwed by this rule before and I’m sure teams will be screwed again in the future.

The rule is fine. You don’t want a team to make the jump if they’re not equipped to handle the higher level long term. You also don’t want teams yo-yoing between divisions year to year based on how good they think their team is that season.

My high school had a 4 star QB prospect who was being recruited by every P5 program in the region, so the administration decided to move up a division. We had more competitive games while he was there, but we also lost all of our rivalries that had been built up over the years. Then we got absolutely crushed as soon as he graduated and they quickly had to drop us back down a level.

I think it’s fine to grant a one off waiver for a situation like this where they made the move fully knowing the rule and had a dream season, but I’d still advocate for keeping the rule in general.

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The new $5 million FBS fee and the logistics involved in bounce back scheduling like that make it highly unlikely it would happen like high school. Made sense for a time, but that rule should be gone. Even if the yo-yo were to happen every now and then, it’s a worse sin for a school like JMU (itself a huge outlier, look at Sam Houston) to be ineligible than a stray team going from FCS to FBS and back every now and then.

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Idaho and Marshall are the only teams I can think of that moved up and then down. Idaho tried to make a go at FBS for quite a while before retreating. Marshall reinvented itself in FCS and when they moved up again they had the wherewithal to stay competitive in FBS.

I don’t think bouncing up and down is a real issue the NCAA needed to worry about. Even less so now with the new fee!

Straightforward from here:

  1. UTSA wins out
  2. Liberty loses
  3. Boise St wins out
  4. James Madison cleans up the Sun Belt and the NCAA doesn’t change their stance
  5. Miami holds serve against the dregs of the MAC and gets revenge against Toledo in Detroit

Doesn’t our second loss pretty much knock us out of contention for a NY6 bowl?

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I mean those things he listed probably aren’t happening. the only team with a realistic shot in the MAC is Toledo and I want a MAC championship

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Let’s imagine a scenario where the following teams win the G5 championship games:

American: 10-3 UTSA
CUSA: 11-3 NMSU
MAC: 11-2 Miami
Mtn West: 8-5 Boise
Sun Belt: 9-4 App State

Do we get the nod?

All depends on who is the highest ranked conference champion in the CFB poll.

But if none are ranked, isn’t it up to the committee?

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I think so. Never happened before so it’s kind of mysterious.

Insightful

Fun fact, there’s been at least one non-power conference champion in the Top 25 (using CFP rankings, BCS rankings, or the AP poll depending on the year) going into bowl season since 1987. Having zero would be quite a drastic shift and require quite a few upsets next week and championship weekend.

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Probably UTSA. That would mean that they beat a 18th ranked Tulane next weekend, then likely a 10-2 SMU who might move into being a lower ranked team for Championship weekend (current receiving 50ish votes).

NMSU would have the recent dominant win against Auburn, and a win against a ranked Liberty team in their championship game.

We would have a win against a ranked Toledo, avenging one of our losses and the fewest losses, but don’t think we’d have as many quality wins to point to (Cincinnati’s fault for sucking).

So probably UTSA, Miami, NMSU in that order imo but could even be UTSA, NMSU, Miami