I definitely give him a pass on K% until after the AS break. I also believe he will continue the improvement you mentioned from recent AAA numbers… once he has time to adjust to MLB pitching.
Replying to the last two posts. I do think he is going to do well, Yes, but his weakness is going to be mastery of the strike zone. He is facing better pitching and the word of mouth travels quickly in mlb. So after his start in the first two games, you can bet the Cardinals studied his AB’s vs Kershaw carefully to see what Elly was having problems with. He had several swings and misses at breaking balls, but I was too far away to analyze anything else about his 3 strikeouts yesterday.
I guess if you can easily accept striking out at a 150 per a full year rate, then maybe he does not have any real issues. I don’t see it that way.
Now McLain has shown me no real weaknesses; I can see him make adjustments when he has lost the battle to the pitcher a couple of times. He really has not shown any holes in any area. range, arm , always makes the right play defender. As a hitter he hits the ball all over the diamond and he has a plan when he comes to the plate. He has a small strike zone and has demonstrated patience at the plate and knows the strike zone better than half the umpires. He has good speed and power and has been very, very consistent for 3 weeks in a row since coming up. Elly has so much raw talent that he can be really good without mastering all those things McLain already has done. I am hoping that Elly will have mastered those things in 2 years when he is 23 like McLain.
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I really think De La Cruz forced the Reds hand. He wasn’t really being challenged in AAA (tho he did have an 0-5 game with 5 K’s about 10 days ago), and it’s difficult to see the need to make big changes in your approach at the plate until you fail/struggle. Here is a very good discussion about him from some of The Athletic writers (including Eno Sarris, who I think is brilliant):
The conclusion is they see the following outcomes:
20% chance he’s Javy Baez (his floor)
40% chance he’s Willy Adames
40% chance he’s Fernando Tatis Jr.
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From Reds statistician Joel Luckhaupt:
ELDC started
A+ ball: 6 for 25 with 12 K
AA ball: 11 for 49 with 16 K
AAA ball: 2 for 22 with 11 K
He adjusted at every level.
Strikeouts are really only a weakness if the offensive production isn’t there.
Aaron Judge struck out 25% of the time last year. I doubt anyone cared.
Judge has had many years of experience and has gone through rough patches at times. This is a very young man in a foreign country. Not a good comparison. Tatis might be a better comparison. However, Elly seems to be handling things perfectly.
In one week in the majors he has already had a streak of 6 consecutive AB’s where he struck out and it did not seem to faze him at all. Just look what it did to Will Benson. He had a great spring training ( hit over .300 and had 4 or 5 homers and 4 or 5 sb’s ( did not look it up, something like that) and won the starting OF position. Then he struck out 4 times on Opening day and had a horrible first week and got sent to the minors. Only now is he getting comfortable and showing his real talent. We can hope that Elly is just different than everybody else. His talent is simply amazing, he is absolutely elite in everything, speed, power, arm strength. He is aggressive and confident. Off what we have seen in one week he could become the greatest Red of all time. However, it is not that easy. Look at what Tatis has gone through already in his career. He has had one amazing season so far, but not so much his other years.
Here is a different topic that I have been thinking about. The Reds have some very big decisions to make coming up very soon. Joey Votto, Will Myers, Jake Fraley, and Nick Senzel will all be returning soon. Either some of those guys will not be coming back or some of the current players will be gone.
I think De La Cruz at 3B, McLain at SS, India at 2B, and Steer somewhere all need to play every day. Other than that I don’t know. I think I would keep Newman as an all purpose infield replacement. I want to see more of Friedel, Fraley, and Benson. Stephenson needs to be playing most days. Maybe Stephenson goes back to being the full time #1 catcher and we get rid of Casali. Maybe they can send Stuart F and/or Hopkins to the minors, they probably still have options. Could we get a reliever for Will Myers in a trade? What are we going to do with Votto and Senzel?
Basically right now the Reds are in contention. The Cardinals and Cubs are fading and have serious pitching issues. The Pirates and Brewers got off to great starts, but looking at them now they are not better than the Reds, and we are not that far behind them in the standings.
Curious what some of you think Reds management should do at this point. There certainly is a strong case that Joey Votto deserves some playing time in his final year with the Reds. Just lots of things to consider. Oh yeah, what about Encarnation-Strand? They can’t all play 1B.
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I don’t think Will Meyers is a necessity. Not hitting .189. Same with TJ Hopkins or Fairchild. Keep one maybe, but not both. I don’t know if they are carrying three catchers right now but I don’t see the necessity of that if they are. Keep 2. Stephenson and (fill in the blank). I am not willing to sit the future of the Reds right now. Meaning, I want to see India, McClain, De La Cruz, Steer all playing. Same with Stephenson. And Fraley has certainly played well this year when healthy. Perhaps you can read into what I am saying from what I have not said. And do not trade Diaz!!
Myers is probably out via DFA, can’t see anyone trading for him or giving up anything of value to get him.
When Fraley is healthy pick one between Fairchild and Hopkins, both have minor league options. Hopkins was tearing it up at AAA so between the two it seems like he should get a shot. They liked Fairchild enough to draft him in the second round and pick him back up when he became available so send him down and give him a shot to work back up.
If they stay with three catchers and everyone in the outfield is healthy probably send Barerro down to make room for Votto.
Senzel might be the best trade candidate to get some bullpen help. Oft injured but super talented and has shown when healthy this year he’s worked out most of his issues. Newman might fetch something as well.
Stephenson has been too injury prone for full time catching going back to Single A ball.
I notice nobody is touching the Joey Votto issue. I think he has been performing poorly for the most part in AAA. As long as the Reds are competing for a playoff spot, I do not think we bring him up and play him. Once he shows that he can help, that is different. Otherwise wait till late in the year and if we drop out of contention give him some playing time.
I forgot about Barerro in writing about this, Yes, he should be the first to go back to the minors.
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Votto has 10 days left on his rehab assignment window. He started this stint 0-12 but has since been 3-10 with a homer and 3 walks. Not exactly tearing it up but reports are the shoulder feels better than it did in April. If he’s truly healthy when the rehab ends bring him up, put him in the mix at first and DH and pray he can produce a little. He’s been a great clubhouse presence for the team this season and with his career winding down it would be sad to see it end poorly.
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That’s not a good plan.leave him in AAA until he is producing.Just like any other call up.
If the Reds are in the hunt they can’t afford a ceremonial player.
When and if the team is eliminated bring him up.
So he is 3/22. Would you advocate bringing up from the minors any other player that was 3/22 at AAA? As for clubhouse leader, perhaps, but this team has a pretty good vibe going on right now with all the young guys. Why upset the apple cart?
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He’s already dropped his lifetime average below 300. What’s he want,280?
If he’s healthy the only other option after his rehab assignment is up is to release him. Is that what you really want to do? He’s been a part of that vibe so I’m not sure how he would upset the apple cart as you say.
And if he is still hitting below or at .200 at the end of rehab, what would you do? Right now he is hitting .136.
By the way, speaking of clubhouse energy etc, last night’s come from behind win was the Reds 21st of the season, which leads the NL.
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If the options are release him or send Barrero/Fairchild/Hopkins down I’m choosing the latter. If he’s hitting below .200 after 50+ plate appearances with the Reds then re-evaluate and possibly have to make a tough decision.
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I’ve heard Votto say multiple times that if he feels he cannot be a productive MLB hitter, he’ll retire. I believe him. But I also don’t doubt his drive and ability to come back from these significant injuries. He’s got about 10 games to figure out what he’s capable of.
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