Tomorrow night is the home MAC opener vs. Toledo. The Rockets are 10-4 against Division 1, 3-1 in the MAC, blowing out the bottom of the MAC (Western, Central, NIU) while losing a street fight at Kent. Coach Kowalczyk’s team isn’t as skilled, but I think they’re scrappier defensively. Last year, they were good against the 3 defensively and played good team defense. This year, they’re about as good against the 3, but they’re better in 1-on-1 situations defensively. They’ll clog the lane in the half court like BG did in the 2nd half so driving and kicking will be important. They will play a little zone, mostly after made baskets and free throws.
Offensively, they’ll spread the floor which not only creates space for their ballhandlers, but allows those on the weak side to flash into the lane for shots as well. Also, Toledo is good at utilizing the skip pass to get open shots. They don’t play a true 5 again with J.T. Shumate doing his thing inside and outside. Shumate ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency, shooting 52% from 3 and 86% from the line. The only game that he hasn’t been in double figures was at Michigan St. Last year’s Freshman of the Year Ryan Rollins has been asked to do more, so his numbers have suffered. Without Marreon Jackson (Arizona St. grad transfer), Rollins is often the primary ballhandler, but he’s more than capable of filling it up. Setric Millner has stepped up his perimeter game, shooting 40% from 3. RayJ Dennis transferred in from Boise St. and is a pesky guard who wants to drive into the lane. Raheim Moss is another driver, but below average shooter. If we’re going to show we’re a top MAC team, this is another team we need to prove that we can beat.
I’m seeing UT as 1 point favorites right now. I’m guessing that will shift to about 3 by game time. I usually don’t put much stock into ESPN’s predictor, but they’re saying Toledo has a 54% chance to win, which I think it pretty close.
With apologies to Tod, there appears to be 3 tiers in the MAC right now. Toledo and Ohio are Tier 1. NIU, WMU, and CMU are Tier 3, and everyone else seems to fall into Tier 2, at least for now. I really could see Miami finishing as high at the 3 seed, or not even making it to Cleveland. Honestly, we’re probably in the 5 or 6 range.
This is a very big game for us. Ohio and Toledo are the teams to beat this year, plus UT has a very long winning streak against us. If we hope to challenge for the top, we have to win at home against the Rockets.
