I said it before the trade deadline. This team as constructed is not a playoff team. And knowing the Reds, you can kiss Austin Hays goodbye after this season as well.
Do you want the team to keep Hays? That looks like the easiest position to upgrade to me, though my guess is they just put Stewart there and keep Steer at 1B.
C Stephenson/ Trevino
1B Steer
2B McLain
3B Hayes
SS De La Cruz
LF Stewart
CF Friedl
RF Marte
DH ?
Either way, excluding trading away cost controlled players with years of control left, which I don’t see them doing, the only place to make a major upgrade is LF/DH, whichever spot they don’t have Stewart go to. I personally hope they aim higher than the Hays/Lux platoon again. I do hope there is something going on with Elly that has led to his atrocious 2nd half of the year. McLain had a shoulder injury that often takes more than one year to fully heal, so I expect improvement out of him next year. (Suarez had a similar injury and the Reds traded him at his low value point because they thought his production was the new baseline. I hope the same mistake isn’t repeated). Hays has given the Reds very little value this year, with slightly above average hitting and well below average defense. Again, I hope the team aims higher.
Hays is 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBIs, 2nd or 3rd in average (if you count Hayes and Andujar), 3rd or 4th in slugging, 2nd in OPS. Seems to me he has contributed more than “very little”.
Hays has a 1.3 fWAR so he’s been a good contributor. However, he should be platooning, starting vs LHP and only a late inning defensive replacement vs RHP (cause he’s better than other options):
LHP 1.013 OPS
RHP .702 OPS (.282 on-base… blech!)
Even Will Benson has a higher OPS vs RHP. 
I heard he has done “very little”! 
“A replacement-level player is defined by FanGraphs as contributing 17.5 runs fewer than a player of league-average performance, over 600 plate appearances.[4] Therefore, a 1.0 WAR player has contributed an estimated −7.5 runs relative to average over the same number of plate appearances, a 2.0 WAR player has contributed +2.5 runs, and a 5.0 WAR player has contributed +32.5 runs.”
6 Austin Hays 29 LF 1.0 WAR
Taken from wikipedia page explaining WAR, and baseball references value of Austin Hays.
Let’s take a quick look at how Hays could be a pretty good hitter, but not very valuable in a baseball sense.
- Defense- He has played 55 games in LF (the easiest position on the diamond) and 40 games at DH. In his 55 games, he has below average range (If you want stats, his range factor according to Bref is 2.07, league average is 2.27, meaning he gets to about 10% fewer balls than the average LF) That is the best range factor of his career as well, so I assume it has maxed out, but who knows.
- Platoon bat- As pointed out by Mowch, he is a platoon bat, on the short-side of the platoon as well, batting better against lefties. 26.2% of starts made in MLB this season were LHP. Meaning he should only be starting once every four games. If you start him against righties, he is below average. This has been the main reason why, even though his stats are so great as you point out, he has only played in 97 games. Because if he were to play more, each additional at bat would be hurting the team more than helping.
- Your stats are obviously correct, but this has been a really bad Reds offense. I’m disappointed in most of their stats. The major flaw in Hays’ game is that he rarely walks, landing at 7th on the team there.
So yeah, I think he has helped the team very little. When he plays against a LHP once every four days, he helps the team, as well as being a good pinch hit bat for the later innings. He has been put in a position to succeed by the team, and even then he only has a 106 OPS+. A slightly above average platoon bat who plays a below average defense at the easiest position on the field, when he actually plays the field.
That was about his value for this year. As far as signing him for next year, it will be his age 30 season, and the player with the most similar profile to him from the Reds in recent memory is Candy. High BA, low OBP, high OPS, poor defensive metrics, Free Agent in age 30 season. (Candy was a 251/807 BA/OPS in his walk year, playing against both handed hitters. Hays is a 265/764 playing mostly against lefties).
I would be fine with the team re-signing him for a few million, but by no means do I think it will be a travesty if they don’t, which was the point of my original response. You seem to be higher on him than I am, though. If you were the Reds owner, what contract would you be willing to offer him?
Edit: Wanted to also point out. There are different calculations for WAR, BRef is my usual, has him at 1.0 I assume Mowch used a different site. In both instances he is well below what is considered average, even with his great hitting against lefties.
Ok. Let’s accept what you say as true. Who are you replacing him with? What player either in the Reds system, or player that will be available in free agency do you propose replacing him with? And just so we have apples to apples, would you mind doing the same analysis you just did on Hays. And what is the proposed cost of this player versus Hays. To me, these are just some of the basic questions to answer if you are simply letting Hays walk.
So my original point got sidetracked a bit in the discussion about the value of Hays. I was saying that that would be the easiest position group to upgrade because all other players are still in their arb/pre-arbitration years, whereas for Hays we would have to pay full-market price. I don’t think he’s the worst player on the team, but he is the worst hitter on the team making fair market value. The LF/DH position group as a whole has largely consisted of Hays (1 WAR/$5M) Miguel Andujar (.5 WAR in 85 ABs/$3M) and Lux (-0.5/$3.4M with likely arb increase for next year). Letting all of those guys go would allow the team to reappropriate $11M for next year, at the expense of 1 WAR. The team recently brought up Sal Stewart, who has been performing and will get a lineup spot next year. That spot may be overtaking 1st, where Steer has only accumulated 0.3 WAR, or may come from starts in LF.
So I’m going to pick from players who are RF/LF/DH and free agents.
Dream signing
Schwarber: Projected 4/$120
Munetaka Murakami (I decided I’m not going to look up expected contracts for each player)
Would be happy
Cody Bellinger
Ryan O’Hearn (for DH only)
Ramon Laureano
Luis Robert Jr (if the Sox don’t exercise his option)
Would be okay settling for on one year deals
Tommy Pham (but I don’t know how his clubhouse persona would fit)
Starling Marte
Marcell Ozuna
If none of these guys are willing to sign for what the Reds offer, and Hays is still sitting there, then I would either try for a platoon, but get enough depth that he plays the field/bats against RHP less, or try to make trades. Tyler Stephenson only has one year left, Nick Lodolo has 2, and if I were GM of the Reds, I would be operating the team more similarly to the Rays and Guardians, trading players when they near the end of the contract, than I would a team like St. Louis.
The team has a 1/$12M option for Hays. Do you think they should pick that up? What contract value do you think he is worth?
What a gem by Hunter Greene tonight. One hit 1-0 win.
9 strikeouts
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Well, when I started this thread, I said 78 wins. Friends, we here now. And with 8 games left, we will win more. I’d like to predict 83 wins. Cardinals won it all with 83.
I’m guessing with 20 HR now Steer won’t be on the bench next year. And he is a terrific fielding 1B. Where to play Stewart will be an interesting offseason discussion. He has played 2B in the minors as well. I don’t see the Reds spending the money for Schwarber or Bellinger. Ramón Laureano is having a career year of sorts. He hasn’t had a season like this one since 2019. I have read the Mets are very interested in Murakami and in a bidding war I think we know who wins between the Reds and Mets. Obviously Schwarber is an obvious big upgrade over Austin Hays, but I’m not sure any of the others mentioned are a true upgrade. I guess we will see where the market takes this. I think the Reds and Hays have a mutual option for 2026.
Yeah, I never expected Steer to be benched. Hays is a free agent, and the offense is in need of improvement, which is why I said his spot will be the easiest to upgrade. I think Stewart has to be in the lineup somewhere small sample size notwithstanding. I don’t dislike Hays, he works hard, good attitude, etc. But the offense needs to improve. I say this with so much conviction, if I were the GM, I try for the free agents first, and if I fail, I am dangling one of the starters to try to get an upgrade somewhere. Schwarber has made jokes about returning home, it fits together really well this off-season as well. But yeah, as a baseball GM in a small market, it’s hard to count on most free agents being willing to come to your team. Small market GM’s have a few choices, none of them good. Constantly flip players to get more talent, trade away players for a short window and then rebuild, or perform devil magic like the Brewers. I’m partial to my team doing the latter. (In all seriousness though, the Brewers traded Hader, Burnes, and Williams, amongst others. They turn over their roster. I hate losing fan faves, but it’s a necessary evil.
Back alone in 4th place in the wild-card race, sitting two games back. When all hope seems lost, they up their chances to about 10%.
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1.0
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Wow. Just unexpected to sweep.
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Still one left against the Cubs today and the Reds have Abbott on the mound. Then 3 with the Pirates and 3 with the Brewers. The Reds very much have a chance here as the Mets continue to struggle, but not a lot of room for error. To me, the Reds must sweep the Pirates to have a chance at the WC.
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Unfortunately they’ll face Skenes, but yeah I still think 5-2 at a minimum is required and possibly 6-1. Can’t count on the Mets continuing to play poorly.
Abbott has not been good recently. Tired arm maybe
Abbott goes 4.2 innings of shutout ball, 3 more pitchers come in for the Reds to complete the 1-0 shutout win. Reds sweep the Cubs! Reds improve to 80-76. Now get the work done against the Pirates!
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Was not expecting this.