Dividends from the trade deadline:
Let Marte move to RF and concentrate more on his hitting.
Improved 3B defense with Hayes.
Added what appears so far to be an impact hitter, in Andujar who is pounding the ball to left field.
Littell allows Burns not to have to shoulder any more load.
I said above these trades incrementally improved the Reds without giving up a ton, and they have.
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Yeah, you were right. And according to last night’s broadcast, Burns will be working out of the pen for the remainder of the season. Which means, between Martinez and Burns going to the pen, and adding Littell and Greene to the rotation, both those positions have been improved. I had my doubts about the impact that Hayes would have, but his defense is game-changing, and the difference in Marte has been impressive. I’m just hoping that this isn’t a few hot streaks and is player improvement based on a change in circumstances. (I think Burns has unlimited potential in the rotation, but am really looking forward to seeing him out of the pen for the remainder of the season. Excluding the Boston game when he was tipping his pitches, he has been basically unhittable in the first three innings of each outing. His second time through the lineup has been less impressive, but I think he is immediately a top ten reliever in baseball)
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Hayes is so good defensively that he probably makes your pitchers more confident pitching to contact, especially to right-handed hitters. That has a ripple effect if your guys are more comfortable pounding the strike zone rather than nibbling the corners.
In Burns’ most recent start, batters whiffed on every changeup he threw (only 5 changeups). As he grows more comfortable with that 3rd pitch, getting through the batting order 2nd and 3rd times will become easier.
He’s had bad batted ball luck so far, with a .377 BABIP against, which should be around .280 according to all of the projection tools. Also, Reds defense has done him no favors…his ERA is 5.24 but his xFIP is a fantastic 2.29, nearly 3 runs better.
You’re spot on regarding facing batters multiple times, look at his K/9 and his xFIP:
He’s going to be very good, maybe even better than Greene.
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Do you all hate the Brewers like I (Pirates fan) do? Maybe after last night….
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As an NL neutral, the Brewers are fun to watch and see how far they can push this crazy run they’re on. If I followed an NL team, I’d find them extremely annoying.
Burns was actually the guy I wanted from that draft class, but he was being projected more around pick 7, so I was pleasantly surprised that the Reds got him. I agree, he could be a top 5 starter in all of baseball in a year or two. For now it’s looking like Nick Kurtz was the best pick (he’s having a monster year, over 1.000 OPS and 24 HR’s in 300 AB’s even after starting slowly), but in a year or two it could just as easily be Burns as the best player from that draft. His stuff is electric, and as you showed, his results aren’t showing the true value he brings.
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They’ve been extremely annoying forever, since Ryan “chain of custody” Braun …
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I think the Brewers are more annoying because it’s hard to put a finger on how they are so successful. When a team is full of stars and wins it makes sense to us. There is nothing that stands out about their lineup or rotation but everyone contributes. They don’t have anyone carrying them but they also don’t have any gaps.
If you look at their statcast hitting outcomes on baseball savant there is almost no blue (bad) but there is also almost no red (good). They are so incredibly average. On the pitching side there is a little red but no blue.
They have a sound strategy and work it. It’s incredibly annoying lol.
Sometimes I think our market holds us back but then I remember that Cincy is bigger market wise than Milwaukee. If the Brewers can win, we can. I’m suprised the cubs haven’t done better after their run to the title. You’d think with their resources and market they would own the division every year. Certainly not been the case.
Cincinnati is 37 and Milwaukee is 38 in TV market size, bigger but only by 8,000 homes so there’s essentially no difference there.
Milwaukee has been a blueprint for what the Reds front office seemingly has been tying to do with the team in recent years. They develop their prospects and don’t sacrifice them for short term gains. They don’t make big splashes in free agency and don’t retain a lot of their own free agents trading them for returns that can help both in the short and long term. They want to avoid the deep rebuilding lows and that’s where the Reds front office has stated they want to be. It’s the opposite of what many Reds fans clamor for but it’s proven to be a winning formula and keeps them at the top of the division year in and out. On the flip side it also may be what has held them back from making a deep postseason run.
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Interesting…Maybe instead of just city, we gotta count Dayton and KY/WV/Indiana as well and look at in on a market basis. That’s our market I think? By that logic, would we be just behind The Cubs? Pittsburgh might also have a large market I’m unaware of though…
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I’ve read that by the 2030 census, there will be enough population density to include Dayton in the Cincinnati metro area (similar to how Cleveland includes Akron and Canton). If that were done today, with 2024 population estimates, Cincinnati would rise into the top 20.
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Quite the performance by Martinez last night. Simply outstanding.
Exactly. Similar to Tampa, they trade the vast majority of their best players 1.5 years before free agency (Burnes, Hader, Williams, etc.) and return multiple contributors. They are also good at pitcher development as seemingly they bring up 2 new unhittable relievers every season. But while this puts them in playoff contention, it hasn’t created a World Series champion.
The Green Bay market is equal in size to Dayton. Indiana/Indianapolis is a mixed market with the Cubs and Cards. We likely gain advantage with Lexington/Louisville where they get hemmed in by the Twins and Cubs.
Dayton metro is over 800,000 (54 miles to GABP) and Green Bay is only 320,000 (118 miles to Brewers stadium). Unless my Google skills failed me, that’s a significant difference.
Madison is closer to Milwaukee and at least twice the size of Green Bay. Wisconsin has about 6 million people; they’re just spread out a bit more than Ohioans.
According to ESPN stats the Mets have ab 87% chance to make the postseason and the Reds 13%. seems like a huge difference compared to the 1.5 GB number. I guess that is because of remaining strength of schedule. In the AL the Yankees are are at 83% ant Guardians at 18%, Cleveland is 2.5 GB New York. No other chasing teams look like realistic threats in either league.
I’m still stunned about the last two games. Just tough ways to lose…