The Reds

Sounds like similar predicament as Cincinnati where Bob Castellini is turning over control to his total a-hole son Phil. Bob is a very good man, albeit a bad owner, and Phil will be a worse owner.

It’s this guy’s birthday today!

Arizona opens up the deadline trade market by dealing Naylor to the Mariners for two pitching prospects ranked 13th and 16th in their system. Rumors are that the Mariners are still in on Suarez but Arizona is asking more for him and are looking for controllable pitching. Chase Petty and another prospect might not be enough but that’s about as high up the prospects list that I would want to see them go. Maybe Petty another prospect and Singer but again don’t know that is enough with the Mariners, Cubs and Yankees all having interest in Geno. Mariners and Cubs have more prospect depth to trade from.

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Arizona is “asking for a ton” for Suarez per MLB.com. The view from my office chair on the 19th floor. To the far right you will see the Arch.

Mariners actually seem to be making their first real run since the record setting 116 win season in 2001. They are the only franchise left that has never played in a World Series. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this might actually be the year they break through with Willie at the helm.

If you add both of those sluggers to your lineup replacing guys who have been subpar you come up with a top 5 or 6 hitters in the lineup who would be as good or better than any team in the majors. They would suddenly become one of the favorites to win it all. Right now they have Crawford leading off who is fast and very high OBP, then their CF is a great power, sb , defensive star batting #2, Maybe the best power hitter and maybe the best catcher in baseball hitting 3, then Nahlor and/or Suarez batting 4 or 5 and Polanco 6. Neither of those 2 adds are making a big hit on your budget as you are just paying for 2 months salary for each. Retaining them for the future however would cost a great deal of money as both will be free agents, so I am doubting Seattle would be able to sign them long term. But for the rest of this season it would make them as good as any MLB roster, IMO.

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We beat the rays. Solid team who is better than their barely over .500 record. If we sweep, I’ll be impressed.

5th straight road loss for TB.

I left out Randy Arozarena who would be the probable #6 hitter dropping Polanco to #7.

So here is an update on where the Reds stand and I think I will do the Guardians as well.

NL Division leaders Milwaukee +19, LAD +18, NYM +16. Wild Card leaders Cubs +17, Philly +15, San Diego +6. Others San Fran +4, Cincy +4, St. Louis +3. I cut it off at .500 but there are others who are in reach of the Padres.

AL Division Leaders Toronto +20, Houston +16, Detroit +15. Wild Card leaders NYY +9, Seattle +6, Boston +5, Others Texas + 4, Tampa Bay +2, Cleveland Even. Again several others just below .500 who are in range of all 3 of the Wild Card leaders. These spots seem far more wide open because both Detroit and NYY seem in complete collapse over a significant period of time now.

I hope you all saw footage of the record setting performance by Oakland Rookie Nick Kurtz last night. Hitting 4 homers in the same game is rarer throughout history than throwing a perfect game. He also tied an all time record for total bases total bases as he added a double and a single for 19 in all. That record was held by Shawn Greene of Toronto. Guardians just played Oakland and he was really impressive in that series too, hitting the ball with great power by going with the pitch. His 4 last night included RF, LF, and CF. He also hit a tremendous shot off the top of a very high CF fence on his double, so easily he could have had 5. He came up from the minors in May and has only played 66 games so far but already has 23 homers. Nickname … Big Amish. His Dad and Uncles were at the game and going wild in the stands.

Another stat I heard last night is that Will Smith of the Dodgers is the only NL hitter who has enough plate appearances to be listed in the leaders and is also hitting over .300. Jus thinking about that made me appreciate the offensive juggernaut that Toronto has become over the last month or so. They actually have gone from sub .500 to the best record in the AL.They have guys up and down the lineup form one to 9 are hitting mostly in the .270’s and .280,s with a few even higher. They had the basic building blocks of Guerro, Bichette, Springer and Kirk starting the season but the others are rookies or career backups that are all producing at levels nobody elase in the majors is.

Yes. Might take a little more money for him to drop that.

Toronto has done a good job of implementing an approach to hitting and sticking with it. Not stressing power but making good contact.

This one belongs to the Reds! 6-2! Reds move to 55-50.

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More good news on the farm. Sal Stewart (promoted to AAA last week) did this tonight:

If the Cards become sellers it would be interesting to see if Alec Burleson is available and what it would take to get him. Plays both corner OF spots and 1B. I know nothing of his contract status etc but he would fill a need for the Reds.

Burleson under team control for 3 more years so will be kinda expensive. He can’t hit LHP and doesn’t play CF. Not a huge upgrade over Fraley or Benson imo.

As I said, I didn’t bother looking up his contract status. Just looking at players the Reds might be willing to look at, as in cheaper than Suarez. I think Burleson’s average is significantly higher than Benson or Fraley and has more pop than Fraley. Burleson .285, Benson .212, Fraley .250. Leaving everything else aside looking at statistics only, not considering cost, contract etc, just stats I will take Burleson over Benson or Fraley. Also I wasn’t looking for a CF. I was looking at corner outfield spots.

Per Statmuse Burleson hitting .217 against lefties. Benson is hitting .067 against lefties. Fraley hitting .200 against lefties. So actually of the three Burleson is the best against lefties and significantly so head to head against Benson.

Power numbers: Burleson 12 HR, Benson 8, Fraley 5.

RBI Burleson 44, Benson 27, Fraley 21.

WAR: Burleson 1.3 Fraley 0.7 Benson -0.1 (also Benson’s career WAR).

What it would cost to get Burleson, if he even becomes available, no idea. But statistically this year he is an upgrade pretty much across the board offensively over Benson or Fraley.

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Do you realize that the Rays are not that good of a team right now? I believe that over the last month, the Rays have the worst record in baseball. They have gone from sniffing at first place to 9 games out. They can’t hit with runners on base and injuries have taken away a lot of their power. Even though their starting pitching has been generally fine, their bullpen can’t hold a lead. Sweeping them right now would not be a major accomplishment.

They have been terrible lately but had some decent wins earlier. You can’t lose 14 in a row or whatever number it was and still be above .500 if you were terrible to start. Me? I’d like a sweep.

Benson has been extremely unlucky as he’s hitting the ball really hard. Looking at MLB right-fielder leaders in expected weighted OBP, which combines walks, strikeouts, and quality of contact, Benson is very good, and Burleson is well above average (Fraley not among the leaders and is right at MB average). Look at the names at the top, this is a terrific way to identify the best hitters:

Benson runs really well and Burleson does not. Burleson strikes out way less than Benson. You have your stats and I have mine. :sunglasses: To me, not a big enough difference in them.