January games are over. It’s time to start paying attention to how this will shake out.
Miami 10-0
Akron 9-1
Kent 7-3
Toledo 6-4
OU 6-5
UMass 5-6
Buffalo 4-6
BG 4-6
Ball St. 3-6
Central 3-7
Eastern 3-7
NIU 3-7
Western 2-7
A big part of me still focuses on defending home court and stealing road victories. Ideally, finishing 1st would be ideal to avoid Akron or Kent until a tournament final.
Other notes include OU sweeping Buffalo. Buffalo and BG have been playing themselves out of Cleveland. UMass has played so many close games, they could play themselves higher. They also have 4 of their last 7 at home, including a game against us.
I’m projecting a Toledo win over OU which would give them the edge in a 3-way with BG and OU. Central could have a say in who’s #8. They have Eastern and Western before they play Buffalo. It’s meaningless, but we can’t finish worse than 6th now.
Will certainly depend on how many games Freitag misses. UB is a good, solid MAC team when he is playing. When he doesn’t they are literally a bottom 2 or 3 MAC team. He’s that type of impact player.
Somebody said somewhere on here (I guess it’s a good problem to have that we have so many active threads now I can’t remember where this came from) that the thought on the Buff message boards was that Frietang maybe sitting out the rest of the year to preserve his earning potential in the portal. If it is a lingering concussion that he has, I could certainly see not wanting to get another one in advance of what might be the biggest payday of his life.
Maybe I’m saying this because Miami and Akron’s records are so good this year, but would it make better sense for the MAC to give a better advantage to the top few seeds? 5 could play 8 and 6 could play 7. Winner of 5 v 8 plays the 4 seed. Winner of 6 and 7 could play the 3 seed. Then the winners of those games play the 1 and the 2.
Gives an advantage to the 1 and 2. Gives a disadvantage to the 5-8. Nothing changes for 3 and 4.
A lot of the smaller conferences do something like this to help ensure their regular season winner (and presumed best team) has the best shot to get the automatic bid.
All I know is that I want to see UMass playing someone else in the first round. That team is flawed, but they compete their asses off and will be a tough out in Cleveland.
It just depends on the year. There are some years where 1-4 are basically tie breakers, so then you are giving huge advantage to teams over others that are basically equal. In other years like this one where you have 1 or 2 clear best teams, it does feel like they have earned something.
Ultimately, I’m ok with just the flat bracket of 8. The beauty of the current MAC is that one magical weekend in Cleveland can deliver you to the promise land, and I kind of love that.
Having byes makes sense for a conference like the WCC given the huge difference between Gonzaga/St. Mary’s and everyone else. The MAC has its good programs and cellar dwellers, but the top half of the conference is pretty comparable in resources (and usually team strength), I’m fine with the current format. Winning three games in three games is difficult but it probably results in the best team making the big dance most seasons.
When we play Eastern and Western this week, they’ll be playing for their MAC Tournament lives.
OU and Toledo seem to be heading for the 4/5 though they play this Saturday.
BG only has 3 games left, 2 of which are against Western and Eastern. 9-9 seems a minimum for them.
UMass could be 9-9, 8-10, or 7-11 with games against BG and OU.
Buffalo goes to Akron in their 2nd matchup. But they finish with home games against Central and Eastern and a trip to Toledo, the 1st time they’ve played all of those teams this year. That seems like weird scheduling.
Not sure where to paste this, but in ESPN NCAA section on line today, Joe Lunardi updates at large prospects metrics, and in the verbiage notes that Miami is looking better than previously thought.
Not sure if he meant with just one loss in MAC tourney or possibly we’d get in the NCAA final four in w one regular season loss and another in MAC tourney. Take a look and see what you think.
