I think that’s a highly plausible scenario, Blues. The big boys are in the process of creating an exclusive cartel and have no intention of sharing the largess. Traditional college football - as we’ve known it for the last 50 years - will probably be dead within three seasons. We might still get a buy game or two from the cartel every season but, as you predict, we won’t have any access to the national playoffs.
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I do not see the B12 or ACC being included in any expansion of slots.
I kind of like the idea of letting the Big Ten and SEC go on their own and Having the ACC and Big 12 and PAC 2 with us and creating our own separate playoffs, with every league having an auto bid and the ACC and Big 12 having two. Right now that would be 8 auto bids, then we could go with 8 at large teams determined by a committee. NIL could be as it is now with teams allowed to spend as much or as little as they want. Maybe a few of the ACC and Big 12 teams would get absorbed into the Big Ten and SEC. That would be OK, it just depends on how much money they want to spend and how much success they might have in those leagues. I think most but not all of those 8 at large bids would go to the current P5 programs.
You are correct.
This feels likely to me and is all the more reason it’s mind boggling to me that the G5 representatives would give up our extra playoff slots for 2024 and 2025.
Seems like there are two options:
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Expand beyond 12 teams and give more spots to each conference, including more spots to the G5. 24 teams (8 byes) would be my vote. The big boys can still keep the lion’s share of the playoff spots and revenue, but the little guys are still in the mix.
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Create a separate playoff for the G5 and any P4 teams/conferences that can’t keep up.
Option #1 creates a bigger pot of money and would resemble the NCAA basketball tournament and the FCS, D2, and D3 football playoff formats.
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What should happen (but won’t) is a 16 team playoff. All conference champs and the rest at large bids
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Doctor Cakes, you offer a smart remedy here.
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The end result is that college football is going to be like the NFL, without the parity.
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Thats absolutely how it should be, but the big schools havent spent the last 30 years excluding 90% of the field for nothing…
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According to what the MAC told us in January, the complete MAC football schedule should be released tomorrow. BOLO
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Latest reported rumor is a 14 team playoff in 2026 with 11 AQ’s and 3 wild cards. AQ’s would be 3 SEC, 3 Big Ten, 2 ACC, 2 Big 12 and 1 G5.
TV revenue going from $510 million to $1.3 billion. G5 share of the TV revenue will be cut from 20% to 10% or less.
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The issue for me is that I don’t think alums of G5 programs and P5 programs left behind are going to simply adopt a team in the cartel. Non college people already have the NFL to follow.
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F’ the NCAA and college football.
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This is the first step towards what I posted several days ago. Note how B12 and ACC really aren’t considered the same “P5” and SEC and B10. The stratification will continue.
https://x.com/RossDellenger/status/1762980394003988776?s=20
“I have been intentionally quiet on here the last couple weeks, and likely will continue to do so, but I wanted to weigh in on this. Here is what I see happening. The CFP will go to 12 teams, with 4 slots guaranteed each to the B10 and SEC, so 8 of the 12 to those two conferences. The ACC and B12 will be guaranteed 2 each. The G5 will be told to leave and start their own playoff and championship, if they wish to do so. But they won’t be part of the CFP with the P4. If the CFB expands to 14, I would expect at least 4 each to the B10 and SEC, and 3 each to the ACC and B12. Unless the B10 and SEC get 5 each, and ACC and B12 get stuck with two each guaranteed. Again, no G5 teams at all. Miami better make it to the CFP this year, because Miami may not have a spot to take after this year.”
They expanded from 4 to 12 and their revenue went from $510 million to $1.3 billion. This is a crazy idea, but maybe playing more playoff games will generate more revenue!
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I am sure this will not happen but I wish the Big 12 and ACC would tell the Big 10 and SEC to go make your minor leagues
I think the football would still be compelling with the Big 12 and ACC and G5. I think you could have a fun championship but what I really think is that the basketball tournament would be still the biggest ticket. The Big 12-ACC- Big East- and the rest I think would still be a top notch march madness event. Way better than those other two league tournament would be.
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I would like that Model too. That would be the best we could hope for.
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My hope is that - after its first three years - the new semi-pro B1G/SEC Alliance finds itself as unpopular and economically unsuccessful as the professional Alliance of American Football was in 2019.
May the new alliance prove incredibly costly to the member schools, may the faculty and student body come to resent the expensive rock star treatment of entitled football student/athletes and may their revenues fall off because of fan and viewer apathy after fans watch half of their 40 teams finish with losing records every year.
Best case scenario would be seeing Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois petition the MAC for admission in 2028 after each team goes no better than 5-7 every season between now and then.
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Looks like the MAC’s promise to release the 2024 football schedule might have been delayed by this week’s UMass announcement. The Belt’s schedule dropped today. Hopefully the MAC’s follows quickly so the race to lock down hotel rooms for the Ohio game can begin.
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