2024 Football Season - The quest for the CFP

And I know how much that upsets you, being the “high quality” guy that he is.

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So it seems to me that the new 5+7 CFB format eliminates any guarantee for the top G5 champion unless the 5 is the G5 team.

Am i viewing it correctly?

PAC-12 (WSU/OSU) aren’t eligible for a conference bid with just two teams, so for now it’s guaranteeing a G5 spot. Long term, I’d expect the likely merged MWC + the PAC 2 to be the heavy favorites for the fifth spot.

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Ah. Gotcha. I’m guessing the G5 champ is almost always the 12 seed, earning a trip to somewhere like Georgia, Texas or Ohio State. Every P4 team now covets the 5 seed.

I would say likely but impossible to say. There is a chance if the ACC or Bug 12 stinks (a couple years ago Pitt was the conference champ at #12) then the G5 champ could get the 4 seed. Only champs can get the top 4 seeds

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So they won’t have a conference for the 2024 season?

That is correct. They would have to earn an at large bid, just like Notre Dame.

They are still a conference for now. The NCAA requires a minimum number of teams but conferences get a few years as a grace period to add schools.

For the CFP, in November they changed the rules so that conferences needed a minimum of 8 teams to get an conference winner spot. The PAC 2 teams can still get an at large spot.

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He was not likely to ever make it on the playing field. Not a loss regarding talent.

They officially approved the CFP format change today to make it 5 autobids and 7 at large slots. However, the change only applies to 2024 and 2025. There are no guarantees for G5 participation in 2026 and beyond and the G5 + Pac 2 committee members did not lock in an access bid as a condition for approving the change. There also does not appear to be any change in revenue distribution. So basically the G5 + Pac 2 representatives gave up a huge bargaining chip and got absolutely nothing in return for it.

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I’m guessing that the G5 reps didn’t make a bigger push in order to prevent alienation from the P5. To your point, there’s no guarantee there will be a G5 auto-bid in the future and last year’s slate of NY6 candidates were pretty weak with the likes of UC moved up, making a push for more representation or money may jeopardize the future. Of course if you apply the same principle in all scenarios then you’re just allowing yourself to get trampled upon for every major issue with really no opportunity to improve the situation.

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Right, but my point is that if you’re doing it to avoid getting cut out in 2026, then you should get that in writing. Power conference people have the memories of goldfish when it comes to the G5. Liberty got blown out this season. If the G5 representatives the next two seasons lose and aren’t competitive (which seems plausible given that they’ll almost certainly have to play on the road against the best non-champion), the power conferences will absolutely use that as an excuse to cut out the G5. The fact that we played nice with them in 2024 will have no bearing.

It seems very likely to me that we just gave away two playoff bids for no reason whatsoever. If Miami finishes as the second best G5 champion in 2024 and the autobid still gets taken away in 2026, (redacted).

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I will be shocked if this system lasts until 2026. High likelihood the NCAA falls apart, FB & BB separate and negotiate their own media deals and the rest of the sports fall back into traditional geographically aligned conferences. BIG & SEC are working on incremental value projections this structure brings paired with potential rev share to make sure they can “keep the lights on”.

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Miami should open its 2024 season with its oldest and most experienced roster in years. Counting the new transfers we have 23 players listed as Seniors on our Spring roster. Only 27 are listed as Freshman.

In most recent years we’ve had just 7-10 Seniors on our roster. This could be the big year we’ve been looking for if high quality QB and receiver play materializes.

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According to Wazzu’s president, who still has his spot on the CFP management committee, the B1G and SEC are floating the possibility of allowing their conferences four auto-bids each when the playoff is next rejiggered following 2026. That would end the whole thing to the extent it isn’t already dead, IMO.

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64 looks like he’s giving birth to some alien pod being.

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That would be an elbow.

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These guys are in college longer than John Belushi !

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We finally caught up with BYU

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I have been intentionally quiet on here the last couple weeks, and likely will continue to do so, but I wanted to weigh in on this. Here is what I see happening. The CFP will go to 12 teams, with 4 slots guaranteed each to the B10 and SEC, so 8 of the 12 to those two conferences. The ACC and B12 will be guaranteed 2 each. The G5 will be told to leave and start their own playoff and championship, if they wish to do so. But they won’t be part of the CFP with the P4. If the CFB expands to 14, I would expect at least 4 each to the B10 and SEC, and 3 each to the ACC and B12. Unless the B10 and SEC get 5 each, and ACC and B12 get stuck with two each guaranteed. Again, no G5 teams at all. Miami better make it to the CFP this year, because Miami may not have a spot to take after this year.

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