2 weeks ago I thought this would be a fruitless exercise. Things have changed. This is how it stands through 2/25 with 2 games left. Please correct me anywhere that I’m wrong.
If you don’t want to look at all of the scenarios, the bottom line is that we don’t control our own destiny to get to Cleveland. Winning out still requires Central or Eastern to lose at least once. Buffalo losing to NIU before they play us would open more doors for us, but Central or Eastern would still have to lose at least once. If we split our last 2 games, we would need Eastern and Central to lose out and BG couldn’t win out. We can’t make it to Cleveland if we lose out.
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Toledo 14-2: at Central, at Ball St. Can’t finish lower than 2nd. They don’t have head-to-head over Kent, but they have it over Akron.
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Kent St. 13-3: vs. OU, vs. Akron. Can finish anywhere from 1-4. They have head-to-head over Toledo. They lost the 1st meeting to Akron. They would lose a tiebreaker with Ball St. if Ball St. wins out and they lose out.
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Akron 12-4: vs. Ball St., at Kent St. Can finish anywhere from 2-4. They beat Kent in the 1st meeting. They lost the 1st meeting to Ball St.
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Ball St. 11-5: at Akron, vs. Toledo. Can finish anywhere from 2-5. I think they would win a tiebreaker over Kent based off winning percentage over the highest seeded conference foe. They will win a tiebreaker with Akron even if they lose in their upcoming game because Toledo beat Akron twice and Ball St. beat Toledo already. Ball St. would lose head-to-head with OU.
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OU 9-7: at Kent, vs. BG. Can finish anywhere from 4-6. OU wins a head-to-head with Ball St. They would win a tiebreaker with Buffalo. (OU beat Akron)
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NIU 8-8: vs. Buffalo, vs. Eastern. Can finish anywhere from 5-7. NIU loses a head-to-head with OU. NIU lost the first meeting to Buffalo, so if Buffalo beats NIU, Buffalo would win head-to-head.
However, a NIU win would give them the tiebreaker with Buffalo (NIU beat Kent)
Here’s where it gets really fun, especially if Buffalo loses out.
- Buffalo 7-9: at NIU, vs. Miami. Can finish anywhere from 6-9. Buffalo beat NIU in their 1st meeting, so a win would give them head-to-head. However, if NIU beats Buffalo, Buffalo would lose the tiebreaker. Buffalo wins a head-to-head over Eastern. Buffalo split with Central, but if tied would lose a tiebreaker. (Central would’ve beaten Toledo.) Miami won the 1st meeting with Buffalo so Miami would have head-to-head with a win in the last meeting. If Buffalo beats Miami, Buffalo would win the tiebreaker (Buffalo beat Ball St.).
If Buffalo loses out, it creates an opportunity for multiple teams to be tied.
Buffalo 2-1, Eastern 1-1, Central 1-2
Miami 2-1, Eastern 1-1, Buffalo 1-2
Central 3-1, Miami 2-2, Buffalo 1-3
Eastern 2-1, Central 3-2, Buffalo 2-3, Miami 2-3
So Buffalo makes it to Cleveland with a win or a Miami loss.
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Eastern 5-11: at BG, at NIU. Can finish anywhere from 7-11. Eastern loses a head-to-head with Buffalo. Eastern wins a head-to-head with Central. Eastern wins a head-to-head with Miami. Eastern lost their 1st meeting to BG, but would win a tiebreaker if they win the 2nd meeting. (Eastern beat Ball St.) Eastern would win a tiebreaker with Western. (Eastern beat OU)
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Central 5-11: vs. Toledo, at Western. If Central wins out, they would win a tiebreaker with Buffalo (Central would’ve beaten Toledo). Central loses a head-to-head with Eastern. Central wins a head-to-head with Miami. Central would win a tiebreaker with BG if they beat Toledo, but lose a tiebreaker with BG if they don’t beat Toledo. (BG beat OU). Central would lose a tiebreaker with Western. (Western beat Ball St.)
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Miami 5-11: at Western, at Buffalo. Can finish anywhere from 7-12. If Miami beats Buffalo, they would win a head-to-head tiebreaker, but if Buffalo wins, Buffalo would win a tiebreaker (Buffalo beat Ball St.). Miami loses head-to-head tiebreakers with Eastern and Central. Miami wins a tiebreaker with BG if BG doesn’t beat OU (Miami beat Buffalo and NIU). Miami would lose a tiebreaker with Western (Western beat Ball St.)
If Eastern, Miami, and Central end up in a 3-way scenario:
Eastern 2-0, Central 2-1, Miami 0-3
- BG 4-12: vs. Eastern, at OU. Can finish anywhere from 8-12. BG wins the head-to-head over Eastern with a win, but would lose a tiebreaker with a loss. (Eastern beat OU). BG loses a tiebreaker with Central if Central beats Toledo. BG wins a tiebreaker with Miami if they beat OU. BG loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Western.
Multi-team scenarios (I think all of these are possible):
If BG beats Eastern:
BG 3-1, Eastern 1-2, Central 1-2
BG 3-1, Eastern 1-2, Miami 1-2
BG 4-2, Central 3-2, Eastern 2-2, Miami 1-4
If Eastern beats BG:
Eastern 2-2, BG 2-2, Central 1-2
Eastern 2-2, BG 2-2, Miami 1-2
Eastern 3-1, Central 3-2, BG 3-3, Miami 1-4
The 3-way without Eastern:
Central 3-1, BG 2-2, Miami 1-3
- Western 3-13: vs. Miami, vs. Central. Out of the top 8. Can finish anywhere from 9-12.
4-team scenario (assuming Western wins out):
Eastern 3-1, Central 3-2, Western 3-3, Miami 1-4
5-team scenario (assuming Western wins out):
Eastern 4-2, Western 4-3, Central 4-3, BG 3-4, Miami 2-5