First of a three-part series on the incoming class:
2026-27 incoming class report: Overview – View From the Glass
I’m looking forward to October more than I have in over a decade.
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Record prediction?
I think they get 20 wins. The top few teams in the NCHC are insanely good.
I believe Denver have over 20 nhl picks on their squad
They’re loaded. So is NoDak.
great stuff Bonk, thank you for all the information you put out there
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It’s prediction time already? Wow, where has the summer gone!
I have us at 18-16 overall and 10-14 in league play. I could be convinced to bump it to 19-15/11-13 but I’ll err on the conservative side. Here’s the breakdown.
In OOC against the dregs of college hockey we go 7-1 only because it’s ridiculously hard to win what is basically 8 straight games. We split with Maine primarily because it’s in Alfond and Maine isn’t a pushover which gets us to 8-2 OOC. In league play we go 6-2 against the loser teams (Omaha, CC, SCSU, ASU) and split with Rico 2-2. Against the elite, we steal two games which is 2-10. Maybe we steal a third? Hmmm. Could be a tough ask so I’ll stick with 18-16 overall. That puts us either 5th or 6th in the league and somewhere between 22-28 NPI. Note I’m not predicting ties or OTW/OTL, just straight up wins and losses.
Let’s be real about the NCHC. There are 4 elite teams which carry the rest of the league. The best of the remaining six teams aren’t any better than the top 4 teams in the CCHA. We can all pound our chests about being in the greatest league in college hockey, but if you look at how I’ve laid out our wins/losses you’ll see I have us towards the top of the “best of the rest” and right in line with where the CCHA leaders will land with regards to NPI…and way off from where the leaders will land. I’m seeing the 4 elite teams in our league beginning to pull away from the rest of the pack. Denver and Nodak have cash, pedigree, coaching, cash, and cash. Western has Ferschweiler who has established himself as an elite coach and his program as an NHL builder. Duluth is back in business. ASU will stink as long as they have the Chris Bergeron of the Southwest as their head coach. Omaha and CC are stuck in the mud and showing no signs of becoming unstuck. St. Cloud is running out of students and cash. That leaves us and the Tommies as the only programs with a chance to stay in contact with Duluth, Western, Nodak, and Denver.
Side note - if we were in the CCHA I’d have us in a three-way dogfight with Michigan Tech and BUGS for first place (four-way if the Tommies were still there).
Agree or disagree. We’ll see how it plays out.
Back to lurking.
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These predictions seem to put us in position for hosting first round NCHC games, something that hasn’t happened in over a decade. The question is do these predictions put us into position for an NCAA at-large, seems like it would but maybe not with the weak OOC.
18-16 would equal last season, hopefully team improves
If you are hosting a first round NCHC tournament game you are likely around what it takes to be an at large. You have to be top 4 to host and last year there were 4 NCHC teams in the NCAA tournament
Last year’s 5th & 6th place teams were 30 & 31 in the NPI, not even sniffing an at large.
5th place last year was 9-14-1 in conference play. If you are above .500 in this conference you’ve got a shot
The prediction offered above by Lurker was 10-14 in conference. That does not appear that’s it’s going to cut it.
Lurker’s thoughts on an at-large: Our OOC is absolutely dreadful - we get zero help NPI-wise. The bottom of the league isn’t super great which is basically neutral when it comes to NPI. So, to get an at-large, we will need to go 5-7 against Denver (2 home games), Nodak (4 games), Western (4 games), and Duluth (2 road games). Make your case that that’s possible and I’ll climb aboard the bandwagon. It better be a compelling case, though.
Lurker’s thoughts on the same record as last year: The top of the league is better this year than last year. The bottom of the league is worse this year than last year. We’re better than we were last year but the 4 teams ahead of us are so much further ahead that it may appear we aren’t making progress. We are. Remember, Noreen is only in his third year. Look at how far we came last year. The plan is working, be patient. As I mentioned in my prediction post above, there are only 2 teams in this league who have a chance to catch the leaders - and I included us in that group. And if we and the Tommies can’t catch them, then the NCHC is destined to be a 4-bid league for the foreseeable future with us on the outside looking in. Why’s that? What’s happened with the B1G and SEC in P2 football is now starting to happen in college hockey. The Haves are getting stronger at the expense of the Have Nots and leaving them behind. Have you made a donation to the hockey program recently? No? Hmmm…
Edit: Rumor is that Landon DuPont is a being paid 7 figures up at Michigan. Haves vs. Have Nots.
Lurker’s thoughts on how the season plays out: Our first half schedule is very favorable. We get the OOC bottom feeders and a bunch of the crummy league teams. For those of you who look at polls on a minute-by-minute basis, you’ll be happy as we’ll be consistently ranked top-20 with thoughts of an at large dancing in our heads by the holidays. Then reality sets in as the second half of the schedule is brutal, especially the last 4 weeks. Don’t be surprised to see our standing in the polls take a big hit come the end of January.
That oughta do it. Back to lurking.
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Wow, you’ve put a lot of thought into this. Excellent points, all.
I guess I was generically thinking 8-2 OOC, 11-13-ish NCHC and at least one playoff win. Optimistic? Maybe.
I’m a huge believer in the fitness end of this that Noreen and Co. have emphasized (plus hiring Farnell – most don’t realize what a pick-up that was) and I think while the team fizzled at the end a bit, they’ll be better equipped this season. The 2025-26 team was young, and another year of conditioning should make quite a difference.
I also think that’s why Miami will hopefully overcome some of the financial obstacles of the haves-and-have-nots that you reference. I think we’re actually see the benefits of Miami gaining that reputation already with Runtso being drafted a little higher than expected and Rieber going when we didn’t think he would.
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