Time for serious business. I’m hoping Dick will take these previews over, but I imagine he’s staggering out of Caddie’s Golf Lounge this morning after a rough couple days and nights.
MAC play starts Saturday at 1 with a visit from the 5-7 Buffalo Bulls. 4-1 at home, 1-6 away. Tough OOC schedule with losses to St. Bonaventure, Georgia, Penn St., Notre Dame and a 78-67 loss at Vermont.
Led by guards Ryan Sabol (so)16ppg and Tyson Dunn(sr) 12ppg, 5.5 ast. Jr. Anquan Boldin Jr. adds 7ppg and 3rpg.
Famous UB alumni include Wolf Blitzer, John Walsh, wine enthusiast Jeanine Pirro and NPR stalwarts Ira Flatow and Fresh Air host (and former WWE card girl) Terri Gross.
Sabol is a really good 3 point shooter. By the way, your contract runs till mid January. Your approach is adding information and humor, and would probably enhance my my stats analysis if you would like to continue.
OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor. OBPR is interpreted as the number of offensive points per 100 possessions above D1 average expected by the player’s team if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor. DBPR is interpreted as the number of defensive points per 100 possessions better than (below) D1 average expected to be allowed by the player’s team if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player’s OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor. BPR is interpreted as the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent the player’s team is expected to be if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
Change: Improvement in BPR over the last 30 days.
Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions played.
Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions played.
Box OBPR: Box Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player’s offensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating OBPR.
Box DBPR: Box Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player’s defensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating DBPR.
Box BPR: Box Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player’s Box OBPR and Box DBPR. This rating is an estimate of a player’s overall value, based only on his individual stats.
Adj Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A higher value is better.
Adj Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A lower value is better.
Adj Team Eff Margin: Difference between adjusted team offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency with player on the court. A higher value is better.
+/-: Number of points scored for the player’s team with him on the court, minus the number of points scored by the opponent with him on the court.
Position: An estimate of a player’s position based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers’ Box Plus Minus 2.0.
Role: An estimate of a player’s offensive role based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated role of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers’ Box Plus Minus 2.0.
Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent’s players on the floor at the same time as the player. A higher rating indicates that the player played against tougher opposition.
Position: An estimate of a player’s position based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers’ Box Plus Minus 2.0.
Role: An estimate of a player’s offensive role based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers’ Box Plus Minus 2.0.
On-Off Offense Splits: How much better the team played offensively with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better offensively with the player on the floor.
On-Off Defense Splits: How much better the team played defensively with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better defensively with the player on the floor.
On-Off Margin Splits: How much better the team played overall with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better overall with the player on the floor.
BPR Interpretation Example: If Jimmer Fredette had an Offensive BPR of 4.5, a Defensive BPR of -0.5, and a BPR of 4.0, this would mean the following: If Fredette were on the court with 9 other D1 average players, his team’s offense would be 4.5 points per 100 possessions better than average, or if he were not on the floor and were replaced by another D1 average player. Similarly, his team’s defense would be expected to be 0.5 points per 100 possessions worse (conceding 0.5 PP100 more) while he’s on the floor. Overall, his team would be expected to outscore the opponent by 4.0 points in a 100 possession game.
UB was the lowest ranked team in the pre season coaches poll (I believe unanimously ranked last), although they have proved a little better than that in nonconference play, we need to beat them easily if we want to prove we are serious in the MAC
You can’t underestimate any team. They will all be tough once MAC play starts. Thus, look out for the bull. Rufus Thomas taught me this many years ago.
The shit we drank…Natural Light. Natural Ice. Awful.
Ps, remember when ads were actually fun to watch? You couldn’t make that ad today because it would focus group terribly but there’s a whole thread in that not worth derailing us over.
