You’re also assuming tying the game is “playing not to lose.” It’s also a way of keeping momentum and adding extra pressure on the other team.
NIU leads by 6 at the half.
3 Likes
Damn!
Notre Dame shi**ed the bed in the first half against Northern Illinois.
2 reasons this is bad.
I believe there’s a rule out there that the MAC only gets one good half in any given year against ND.
NIU just used up that quota.
Second, more importantly, Northern Illinois looks really decent.
1 Like
NIU missed a 53-yard FG attempt. Still 13-7 in South Bend.
2 Likes
Kent state gonna lose to St Francis
Two point conversions work at about 47%. PATs are converted at about 97%.
Two Point Strategy:
.47 * .97 = 45.6% win in regulation
.47 * .03 * .5 = 0.7% win in OT
.47 * .03 * .5 = 0.7% loss in OT
.53 * .47 * .5 = 12.5% win in OT
.53 * .47 * .5 = 12.5% loss in OT
.53 * .53 = 28.1% loss in regulation
Overall 58.8% chance of winning
PAT Strategy:
.97 * .97 * .5 = 47.0% win in OT
.97 * .97 * .5 = 47.0% loss in OT
.97 * .03 = 2.9% loss in regulation
.03 * .47 * .5 = 0.7% win in OT
.03 * .47 * .5 = 0.7% loss in OT
.03 * .53 = 1.6% loss in regulation
Overall 47.7% chance of winning
You’d have to think you have a 36% or worse chance on the two point conversion before it makes sense to kick the PAT. You’d have to think you have at least a 66% chance of winning in OT before it makes sense to kick the PAT. That’s without even considering the fact that a team that’s less than 36% on two point conversions probably isn’t 50/50 to win in OT, and a team that’s greater than 66% to win in OT probably isn’t only 47% on two point conversions.
This analysis also doesn’t take into account the fact that failing to convert on the first possession allows you to structure your second possession such that you can get a third possession for the potential win (exactly like what happened today).
1 Like
Washington with four straight TD since the start of Q2. Huskies up 27-6 early in the third…
We agree to disagree. And that’s fine. You’re looking to convert something that works under 50% or the time on the first score… and if you lose out to statistical probability, then you need to convert on something that works under 50% of the time to try to tie it. If Pitt failed on both attempts and lost, their fans would have had a meltdown. They won anyway, so their chance of winning the game ended up being the same 100% it would have been with the aggressive or conservative approach.
I don’t mind going for two and the win in OT or in a situation we nearly had last week (scoring a touchdown with no more than say 20-30 seconds on the clock and trailing by one). But the new idea of going for two twice when trailing by 14 seems to not work out more than it does in actual games.
1 Like
I see no Gage in the South Carolina box score, no Amos in the Old Miss box either. There is a Trey Amos playing on defense for whatever that’s worth. A bummer for all parties.
1 Like
NIU turns it over on downs. Instead of trying a 47-yard FG, the Huskies went for it on 4th & 2 but the pass was incomplete.
Notre Dame leads 14-13 with 12 minutes remaining.
1 Like
Notre Dame is trying to lose!
1 Like
Here we go Huskies!
1 Like
NIU is back in the same position. 4th & short from the ND 31. Now it’s down to 2:00 on the game clock.
Did not expect ND to play two pretty bad halves.
Also, I’m upgrading my earlier assessment of NIU…they’re pretty darn good!
1 Like
Line judge’s spot is criminal
8 Likes
Doesn’t matter!
1 Like
Seriously the game should be over. That was egregious.
6 Likes
Game would be over if officials could do their job
5 Likes
Damn. Couldn’t this have waited two weeks?
They gave them a free timeout too! The clock should’ve been running
3 Likes