Two point conversions work at about 47%. PATs are converted at about 97%.
Two Point Strategy:
.47 * .97 = 45.6% win in regulation
.47 * .03 * .5 = 0.7% win in OT
.47 * .03 * .5 = 0.7% loss in OT
.53 * .47 * .5 = 12.5% win in OT
.53 * .47 * .5 = 12.5% loss in OT
.53 * .53 = 28.1% loss in regulation
Overall 58.8% chance of winning
PAT Strategy:
.97 * .97 * .5 = 47.0% win in OT
.97 * .97 * .5 = 47.0% loss in OT
.97 * .03 = 2.9% loss in regulation
.03 * .47 * .5 = 0.7% win in OT
.03 * .47 * .5 = 0.7% loss in OT
.03 * .53 = 1.6% loss in regulation
Overall 47.7% chance of winning
You’d have to think you have a 36% or worse chance on the two point conversion before it makes sense to kick the PAT. You’d have to think you have at least a 66% chance of winning in OT before it makes sense to kick the PAT. That’s without even considering the fact that a team that’s less than 36% on two point conversions probably isn’t 50/50 to win in OT, and a team that’s greater than 66% to win in OT probably isn’t only 47% on two point conversions.
This analysis also doesn’t take into account the fact that failing to convert on the first possession allows you to structure your second possession such that you can get a third possession for the potential win (exactly like what happened today).