MIAMI'S MAC CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS

Men's Sports Football
1

=>I have done the math.

Win and Miami is in as regular season champ.

Miami makes the MAC Championship as 2nd place with a loss to BG only if BOTH of these events occur:

  1. Ohio loses at home to BSU (OU win and OU finishes with better record)

AND

  1. Buffalo loses at home to Kent (See note below).

Here, Miami would win the head to head tie-breaker over OU as both would be the only 6-2 teams.

Neither is very likely. So realistically, Miami RedHawks Football has to be at BG.

NOTE ON 3-WAY TIE FOR 2ND:

1). When more than two teams are tied, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head winning percentage IF all the teams are common opponents. Here, Miami has not played UB so this does not apply if UB, OU, and Miami are tied at 6-2.

2). The next tie breaker is if one team has beaten all the other tied teams. Again, Miami has not played UB so this does not apply.

3). The third tiebreaker is winning percentage vs. common opponents which Buffalo would win.

MU: 3-1 - 75%
W: BSU, EMU, Kent,
L: Toledo

OU: 3-1 - 75%
W: Toledo, EMU, Kent,
L: BSU

UB: 4-0 - 100%
W: Kent, EMU, BSU, Toledo,
L: None

2

You didn’t need to do the math. We figured out these scenarios days (if not weeks) ago. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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3

=>I figured it out better.

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4

If you don’t cross the finish line first, you don’t win.

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5

Good to see you back, Moll.

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6

https://x.com/themscpodcast/status/1860469287074562286?s=46&t=ZH1fFGwu8Q0191V3SgsUtQ
Here is a breakdown of every scenario

7

=>Simplified on how teams can make MAC Championship:

BOWLING GREEN:

A) BG win

OR

B) BSU win + a win from either Kent OR WMU OR CMU

MiAMI:

A) Miami win

OR

B) BSU win + Kent win

OHIO: OU win

BUFFALO: UB win + BSU win + EITHER BG win OR NIU win + EMU win

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8

=> I disagree with the tweet above as in the final scenario it has buffalo in the championship game with a loss. Buffalo cannot get in the MAC championship game with a loss as UB would be 5-3. In that final scenario Miami would be in the MAC championship game via beating Ohio head to head.

I think it was a typo. If it said Buffalo win then that would be correct.

9

Yeah likely a typo since the top line has the same scenario with Miami - BG

10

=>Kent down 33-7 late in 3rd qtr. Looks like out only lifeline is slipping. Guess we just gotta be at BUGS.

11

Buffalo now up 43-7 with 2 minutes left. Buffalo goes to 8-4. Pete Lembo has to be the MAC COTY.

12

=>With buffalo winning, we got no help.

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13

Lembo has done a good job turning them around immediately but on its face it’s ridiculous that him of all people might win MAC COTY before Chuck does.

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14

Why? Were we not the preseason pick to win it all?

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15

Not this season specifically, just relative to the decade that Chuck has been around. In an isolated sense I agree there have been better COTY candidates in his big seasons - 2016’s turnaround wasn’t big enough to get interest, 2019 was overshadowed by a meh OOC performance and McElwain’s immediate turnaround, 2023 was overshadowed by Candle’s better record and head-to-head win. But holistically it’s a bit absurd.

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