"The increased spending is now drawing a second line, and that line runs straight through the middle of the power-conference tier itself. Duke and Boston College share a conference, yet they do not share anything close to the same financial reality.
That gap between the handful of genuine national brands and the broad middle class of power-conference basketball may end up being one of the defining stories of the next decade. It will not be simply because some schools care more than others, though that matters, or because a few of them were clever enough to figure out NIL before everyone else. It will be because the biggest brands are sitting on advantages that have very little to do with how generous their collective happens to be.
They have bigger audiences, deeper donor pools, and stronger alumni networks. More importantly, they carry more national visibility and more media value, which simply gives them more ways to turn attention into money. They have also started behaving like organizations that no longer treat any of this as a temporary spike. "
That is exactly why I think at some point you will see the top 5-6 schools from the big 4 break away. The school might not be dominant in all sports, but it will be the final separation beyond Power and Mid Major. You’ll have high major teams just like basketball.
You think the top 4 from each conference will break away, or the top four or five overall? Even if it’s from each conference, I don’t understand the value add. It would get boring to me as a fan to watch my team play the same 15 teams every year. And it’s a lower level than the pros. I think it would be shooting themselves in the foot.
Either way though, part of what makes college sports more entertaining to me compared to the pros is the cinderellas that come and win a title or the upset of the big teams. Each of those will become fewer and further between, eroding the interest of all fans outside of those power teams fan bases and making the sport less popular into a downward spiral. That’s what I envision unless some sort of revenue sharing or spending caps are out into place. The top teams breaking away might actually draw interest away from the top teams and into the majority of the league, IMO. Especially outside the Texas Florida Georgia Ohio etc hotbeds.
You have a point. It could be the top 32 teams overall, but it wouldn’t surprise me. I also think if that happens, those not in that super league will get a boost.
Also CFB fans don’t want to consider an 8-4 season a success. They’ll keep the weaker programs around as cannon fodder. Also, I’ve read some analyses of how complicated, if not legally impossible, it might be to abandon a Purdue or Vanderbilt.
If anything, I see the B1G and SEC expanding to 24 each if the big breakup comes. For the B1G, that might mean ND finally swallows their pride and joins taking Stanford with them who takes Cal along. Then three from the ACC: UVA and UNC for sure and then one of Duke, Miami and GaTech as the wildcard.
I totally agree with this about the records but I still think it may be coming. If Minnesota was going 4-8 every year instead of 6-6 or 7-5 that is a big difference. Iowa now becomes a 6-6 team instead of 8-4.