Alright, 2 games left and I think we can start narrowing this down a little bit.
Akron 15-1. Clinched #1. at Toledo, vs. Buffalo
Miami 12-4. Can clinch #2 by winning 1 of our last 2. OU has the tiebreaker since they beat Akron. at Buffalo, vs. Ball St.
OU 10-6. vs. Eastern, at Toledo. 1 win guarantees them 4th. 2 wins guarantee them 3rd.
Kent 9-7. at Western, vs. Eastern. They lose head-to-head with OU, but they would win a 3-way tiebreaker with OU and Toledo. Kent would lose tiebreakers with Western (if they lose to them) and Ball St. But they’re in as BG can’t pass them.
Toledo 9-7. vs. Akron, vs. OU. They’re also in an advantageous tiebreaker position with the teams below them. They would win a head-to-head over the next 4 teams if it came to that.
Western 8-8. vs. Kent, at BG. They have the head-to-head over Eastern. They have the head-to-head ove Ball St., but not Central or BG if they lose to them. 2 wins assure them of a spot.
Eastern 8-8. at OU, at Kent. They don’t have the head-to-head over Western and Ball St., but they do over Toledo, Central, and BG because of their win over us.
Ball St. 7-9. vs. Central, at Miami. They have the head-to-head over BG because of their win over Kent. They knock out Central with a win.
BG 7-9. at NIU, vs. Western. BG’s way in might be Ball St. beating Central, which helps BG because they don’t have the tiebreaker on Central, and then Miami beating Ball St. while BG wins out.
Central 6-10. at Ball St., vs. NIU. They have tiebreakers on BG and Western.
Alright, here’s where we stand heading into the last game.
Akron 16-1. Clinched #1.
Miami 13-4. Clinched #2.
OU 10-7. at Toledo. They hold head-to-head with Kent because they beat Akron. If OU wins, they’re #3. If OU loses and Kent wins, OU drops to 5 because they lose the tiebreaker to Eastern. If OU loses and Kent loses, OU drops to 6 because they lose the 4-way with Kent, Eastern, and Toledo.
Kent 10-7. vs. Eastern. If they win and OU loses, they’re #3. If they win and OU wins, they’re #4. If Kent loses and OU wins, they’re #5 as they win head-to-head with Toledo. If Kent loses and OU wins, Kent is #4 as they tie with Eastern in the 4-way, but Eastern wins that head-to-head since they beat us.
Eastern 9-8. at Kent. If they win and OU loses, they’re #3 because they win the 4-way. If they win and OU wins, they’re #4 because they win head-to-head. If they lose, Toledo loses, and BG wins, they’re #5. If they lose, Toledo wins, and BG wins, they’re #6. If they lose, Toledo wins, and Western wins, they’re #7. If they lose, Toledo loses, and Western wins, they’re #7.
Toledo 9-8. vs. OU. If they win and Kent wins, they’re #4. If they win and Kent loses, they’re #5. If they lose, Kent loses, and BG wins, they’re #6. If they lose, Kent wins, and BG wins, they’re #6. If they lose, Kent wins, and Western wins, they’re #5.
BG 8-9. vs. Western. If they win, they’re #7. If they lose, they’re out.
Western 8-9. at BG. If they win, Eastern loses, and Toledo loses, they’re #6. If they win, OU loses, and Kent wins, they’re #6. If they win, OU wins, and Kent loses, they’re #7. If they lose, they’re out.
Ball St. 7-10. If they win, Western wins, and Central loses, they’re #8 because their win over Kent will outrank BG’s win over Toledo. Otherwise, they’re out.
Central 7-10. If they win and Ball St. wins, they’re #8, regardless of the BG/Western result because they have head-to-head over both of them, thus getting the 3-way tiebreaker with the BG/Western loser and Ball St. Otherwise, they’re out.
Sorry it’s a little messy, I’m not feeling 100%, but I was determined to finish. So I likely missed something, so please add it if you catch it.
We might actually be getting close with D1 wins. I need to look at our sweet 16 team’s record as Charlie played an insane schedule every year…
Nothing against D3. I totally get why we have to play them and are glad they help fill the schedule, I just personally don’t count them the same as D1 wins.
This is cool. We are actually tied with the sweet 16 team for D1 wins at this point. Those guys had 25 all in that year. Granted, they played murders row and won a ton against that schedule, but still. Shows how great this year has gone. Ps, no d3 schools as wins so it’s apples to apples beyond the fact they beat Tennessee and ND and Dayton.
BG has to go the length of the floor in 3 seconds to beat Western after a controversial foul call put Western at the line and they made 1/2 free throws.