The CBS Sports Schedule page and the Toledo site have our game at the Glass Bowl on Oct 5 kicking off at 3:30. Miami still shows it as TBA.
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So, 3:30 it is.
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Today Jerry Palm has seven teams from the MAC projected for bowl games. He has us in Detroit vs Wisconsin, which seems unlikely since we open with them in Madison next Labor Day weekend.
He also left BG out, which seems highly unlikely.
Looking at how our remaining schedule shakes out, here’s how I see it through four weeks. Getting back to MACC will be difficult, but getting to a bowl is very much still in play. I actually like our relative health and defense thus far, but the offense and BG need to up their game.
Must Wins:
UMass
Kent St
Toss Ups:
@EMU
CMU
@Ball State
OU
Northern Illinois
Unlikely Wins (games we won’t be favored in):
@ Toledo
@ BG
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Playoffs ?…Playoffs ?
Let’s Roll !!
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All three of our games this season had similar starts - offense looked semi-functional but stalled from bad penalties/turnovers/play calls near the red zone, D looked great. But once the opposition makes adjustments and our defense wears down, we just don’t have the talent or creativity to come back and make plays to keep our defense rested and efficient. Bend-but-don’t-break is a fine strategy if the offense executes to get some points and the special teams gifts you great field position most drives, but when we miss opportunities constantly and the ST looks less than pedestrian it isn’t going to work when we don’t have the depth to hold up on defense.
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If you are saying unlikely wins are games we arent favored in then I think all your toss ups we will be favored in.
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I’m not concerned about the remaining games. Toledo and BG will be tough, as you eluded to. We will probably lose one of those. I think we beat everyone else.
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I can see up to three losses in the remaining schedule… hopefully only 2 to get to a respectable 7-5 regular season record.
To even accomplish that, we need to fix our play calling and execution, particularly inside the red zone. If we can run the ball like we did the first quarter of the ND game, we should be OK. The D will do just fine against MAC foes.
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102 in the latest SP+ rankings. 128 on offense, 45 on defense, 111 on special teams.
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Our 8.3 points per game ranks last in FBS in scoring offense. That is certain to change this week. (The mean of the 133 FBS teams is 29.5 ppg)
I’ll revert back to my regular Chuckball prediction and say we go 6-6 and may likely not make a bowl. Our insistence on not developing the QB position is weird….
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UMass averaged 13 ppg in their three FBS games. We averaged 8. The O/U this week is 47.5. I def took the under.
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For some reason (mostly because UMASS is pretty bad), I think we’ll break out and win by two TD’s
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I think very highly of the Sagarin computer rankings. Interestingly, we are by far the highest ranked zero win team at 87th. The next best is Old Dominion at 110.
This season might be the poster child for why we should always have an FCS game on the schedule.
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Team needs to beat UMASS with ease and play back ups.
Season NOT lost yet but going 6-3 is not easy
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Just win this week then we’ll worry about next week. Arguably, the most frustrating thing about the first 3 weeks is there hasn’t been a significant talent gap between us and our first 3 opponents. We’ve just failed miserably at taking advantage of opportunities. This year’s been reminiscent of previous years where the mistakes we’ve made, while relatively few, have been incredibly damaging. The turnovers in scoring territory, penalties that have derailed offensive drives or defensive stops, and especially the huge negative difference in special teams play have been costly.
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We are the only team in the nation whose first 3 games were vs Power 5 teams. At least I was told that. Plus the average margin of loss to those power teams is only 14.
The under is almost always a good bet with our team. Fewer plays in our games plus we kick lots of FG’s and our strongest group this year is the defense. Chuck never wants to run up the score and is very happy running the ball and the clock in the second half when we have at least a 2 score lead.
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That is the issue. The beginning of our season is always brutal. This year is the most difficult I can remember. One P5 game is enough. I would like to see an FCS team , a good one like South Dakota State, Montana, as our our second game after opening with a P5.