2024 Cincinnati Redlegs

81

I totally agree with what you’re saying.

2015 was an absolute masterclass in how to botch a rebuild. The team severely underperformed in 2014, and I along with many others were saying to rebuild then. They didn’t. (Supposedly because of ownership, but who knows). Instead, they upped Homer Bailey, who was an analytics darling but hadn’t been that great with regularity on the field. They held on to all the expiring contracts until the last possible second, and by then injuries, underperformance, and pure rental contracts minimized their returns. Saddled by the Bailey and Votto contracts, and with minimal returns when trading their big named players, that rebuild never had a chance. The only reason the team became competitive later was because of the returns garnered from Strailey and Simon trades.

So those trades made the team marginally competitive in 2019, when the team made one of the worst trades ever in trading their very few prospects to get downward spiraling Puig, an oft injured Alex Wood, the contract that offset Bailey in a washed Matt Kemp, and the surprising WAR leader of that trade, Kyle Farmer.

None of those rebuilds had a strong enough foundation to succeed. I hated the signings of Moose and Castellanos because it was prolonging the time the team was in the middle. But this team, from the pitching to the young batters, has the foundations. It just needs to be supplemented, as you say, with a big bat in the OF. The failings of previous GM’s shouldn’t dictate how the new management operates. Don’t rebuild this team, but do sell off expiring contracts, because this year seems a lost cause.

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82

There you go again, using stats to disprove what I see. Is there anything in the stats you look at that show why we are losing despite the positive run differential?

83

For a minute, I almost started doubting my belief. I thought “Yellow, maybe you’re being too hard on this super awesome underachieving band of future pennant winners.” I mean, Eli’s dumb hot dogging tag out the night before was idiotic for a team under.500 but hey, I’m old and he’s a kid so maybe I don’t know…But, then I watched another terrible 2-1 loss.
I predict the dismantling begins end of this week. Again, I am a die hard fan and hope I’m wrong, and that somehow we catch fire, but my gut says this is not a well constructed team and the sweepstakes van ain’t coming to our front door.

84

I think the TOOTBLANs, aka runners “thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop”, are a big reason for the 1-run losses. Reds lead the league in TOOTBLANs, and had 2 more of them in the 2-1 loss yesterday… De La Cruz cut down at home trying to score on a grounder to 3rd, and Wynns caught in between bases after driving in the Reds only run (they’d have had runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs).

I don’t have stats to back it up, but it does seem like the Reds baserunning mistakes tend to occur in the close games.

Defense: Reds team fielding percentage (old school defensive stat!), is 3rd-worst in MLB. So defense is giving the opponent extra outs. Having that happen in a close game is obviously a recipe for a loss. New school defensive stat drs (defensive runs saved vs average)… Best teams are above 50, with Guardians leading the way with 62… a somewhat hidden reason they are having such a great season. Guess who is last??? Okay, it’s the White Sox, but the Reds are next to last, with a minus-31. Which means the Reds are making lots of errors, and ALSO not making outs on regular plays that don’t result in a physical error.

Next, it’s the bullpen usage. Reds pen has been very good. However, in key situations other than a 9th inning Save situation they are worst in baseball. Diaz has only blown 2 saves, but I saw a graphic last week that showed each team’s most-used reliever during the highest pressure moment of games. At the top is Clase (another reason Cleveland has the record they do), but for Cincinnati, that pitcher has been setup man Fernando Cruz, and his ERA in those situations is dead last, at over 11.00 ERA!!! That was before yesterday’s debacle, where Cruz allowed 2 runs in less than an inning. Those decisions are all on David Bell.

Last, it’s the number of Reds platoon players, and lack of depth due to injury. Reds have only a few guys who you can trust against both lefty and righty pitchers (Elly, Candelario, India, Friedl, Stephenson, and Steer). David Bell gets schooled often here, but not entirely his fault as the Reds just don’t have enough good hitters. Too often in late game, key situations, he’ll have a platoon guy facing the lefty/righty pitcher that they DON’T hit well.

Anyway, obviously lots of holes in this team, but there is a core group of 15 guys who can be built around:

C: Stephenson
1b: CES and Candelario
2b: McLain
SS: Elly
3b: Marte (looks like he’s not ready yet)
LF: Steer
CF: Friedl, but really I’d say he won’t ever replicate 2023
RF: Nobody
DH: India (obviously another guy who you could trade)
SP: Greene, Lodolo, Abbott
RP: Deep group of decent arms, but I’d trade any of them (except Moll) if I could get a good OF bat

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85

I used to play softball with Joey Weimer’s dad. I remember Joey hanging around the dugout when he was 3 years old. Weimer lost his chance in Milwaukee when Jackson Chourio took over. By the way, Chourio is the first (and only, so far) player born in 2004 to play in the majors.

Weimer plays hard and will be a fan favorite.

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86

I don’t really know where to look at advanced stats, so this is a genuine question. I hear on the broadcasts that Elly leads the majors in errors, but is also one of the leaders in DRS because he gets to so many more balls than most SS’s. So if even with him being one of the leaders in DRS, the Reds are 2nd to last, who is at fault for that low total? Friedl got most of his value on defense last year, but has been injured most of the year. Mclain was above average defensively, but hasn’t played at all. Marte is supposed to be good at 3B, but hasn’t looked it so far this year, but he hasn’t played enough to skew that stat too much. If those guys are replacing the laggards, then that would be something easily fixed.

87

The Reds leading the majors in TOOTBLANS certainly does support what my eyes told me…The two biggest reasons the Guardians lead theAL in winning percentage is they have the best bullpen and the best defense in baseball. Giminez looks like the best defensive player in the majors and makes spectacular plays on a daily basis. Clase is as good as a closer can be. The Guardians have lost one game all year when they had the lead after 6 innings. Besides Clase they have 3 or 4 other guys that have been closer good. Now their starting pitching borders on terrible and their offense is about average. Ramirez is great and Kwan and Nahlor are very good.

One reason Cruz has been struggling is the Reds catchers are not good enough to consistently block his sinker. The backup catcher could not slide over 10 inches and block the ball, even though he knew the sinker was coming. Just a pathetic effort, and it looked like Cruz was screaming at the catcher as he walked off the mound.

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88

TOOTBLANS sounds like a lower gastro-intestinal disorder.

89

I think you answered your own question. It’s effectively everybody else. The only players rated above average defensively by Fangraphs comprehensive rating: Elly (well above average), Stephenson (decidedly above average), and India (barely above average). India playing the best defense of his career.

Friedl has been hurt a lot, including leg muscle injuries, which has caused his defense to lag.

Elly makes errors on too many standard plays, but his range, arm, and ability to turn a seemingly impossible play into an out, gives him an overall high rating.

90

Yeah, Cruz’s splitter is among the top individual pitches in all of baseball. Wynns is a rookie who made a complete mess of the pitch you mentioned. He gets in front of that pitch and likely no runs score and Reds win.

I did see in Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ on Fangraphs, that over the past month Cruz has had worse control of his splitter. That means more pitches off the plate and in the dirt. Also that means a higher usage of his lesser pitch, his fastball, which is way easier to hit than the wicked splitter.

91

If you think that’s bad wait till you learn about a FARTSLAM (fielder allowing run to score like a moron)

92

Good take Dick. One other key point on Guards bullpen - unlike the Reds - the entire pen that leads the majors is under 30 and the 4 key late inning guys are under team control for 3+ years.

93

I decided to try to look myself, out of curiosity. Steer and Candy are really bad. One of those two should be a DH, and the other should be traded if you are looking to improve the defense. Also, RF is primed for an upgrade both offensively and defensively.

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94

Traffic cones might be better defensively than Steer and Candy. Marte is almost as poor, but has a good reputation in the minors, so hopefully he will improve.

In a perfect world (Friedl and McLain healthy), Steer and Candy would have been able to DH more this season.

95

Baseball Savant has an Outs Above Average metric.
Elly is at +9, 18th in MLB. Canderlario is a -10 4th worst in MLB. Marte is -5 and Steer is -4. Everyone else is decidedly average no better than +2, no less than -2.

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96

I was reading The Enquirer today and the Red’s headline said “Red’s vow for run at October title”

What on Earth. I know I’m negative because last night we looked very competitive against Chicago…but seriously. What on Earth…

97

And Blake Snell of the Giants no hits the Reds at GABP

98

They took a batter who was cast aside from the worst hitting team in baseball, signed him, and put him in the 4 hole. Sometimes I feel like the team is being sabotaged from the inside.

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99

Didn’t mention what Calendar Year,did they?

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100

How about that? Suddenly, Blake Snell can go nine innings and throw over 110 pitches. Who would have thought?