Well, it’s March. Of course, the same Eastern team that was abysmal against us on Saturday went to Akron and won tonight. Even down 1 with the ball with 7 seconds left, their win probability was 8%, 2% after Osojnik missed the 3, but then Billingsley rose for the putback slam.
(Also, #1 seed E. Kentucky in the ASun lost at home in the quarters of their conference tourney)
So, 1 game left and there’s a lot to be decided.
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Toledo 13-4. With OU guaranteed at least 3rd, Toledo now has the head-to-head. Toledo also wins a 3-way tiebreaker with Akron and OU.
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Akron 13-4. They’re #1 with a win and a Toledo loss. They’re #2 otherwise.
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OU 12-5. They’re #2 with a win, a Toledo win, and an Akron loss. They’re #3 otherwise.
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Central 11-6. Locked. They lose the head-to-head with OU.
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BG 9-8. Now that Toledo is #1, BG has the tiebreaker on us.
They finish #5 with a win OR a loss and Miami loss and Western win.
They finish #6 with a loss and Miami win and Kent win and Western win OR a loss and Miami loss and Kent win and Western win.
They finish #7 with a loss and Miami loss and Kent loss.
- Miami 9-8. Any tiebreaker with Western involved we lose.
We finish #5 with a win and BG loss OR a loss and BG loss and Western loss and Kent win
We finish #6 with a loss and BG win and Western loss and Kent loss
We finish #7 with a loss and BG loss and Kent loss and Western win
We finish #8 with a loss and BG win and Kent win and Western win OR a loss and BG loss and Kent win and Western win.
- Kent 8-9. They have clinched. They win a head-to-head with Ball St. on the 2nd level.
#5 if they win and BG loss and Miami loss and Western win
#6 if they win and Miami win and Western win and BG loss OR if they win and Miami win and BG loss and Western loss
#7 if they win and Western win and BG win and Miami win OR if they win and BG win and Western win and Miami loss OR if they lose and Western win and Ball St. win
#8 if they lose and Western win
- Western 8-9. Win and they’re in.
#6 if they win and BG win and Kent win and Miami loss OR they win and BG loss and Miami loss and Kent loss
#7 if they win and Kent loss OR they win and Kent win and BG loss and Miami loss
#8 if they win and Kent win and Miami win OR if they lose and Ball St. loss
#9 if they lose and Kent loss and Ball St. win
- Ball St. 7-10. 1 scenario. They lose head-to-heads with Kent and Western.
#8 if they win and Kent loss and Western loss
Out otherwise
And I think that does it?
Postscript: Keep in mind that if Akron wins the MAC, we regain the head-to-head over BG.