Fade Pass/Deep Route-Success Rate

You have to throw deep balls to keep the defense honest, but we go way overboard. I’m not sure if the data exists for college, but as a point of reference, NFL teams only throw like 10% of passes beyond 20 yards. Over a third of our passes being deep balls is wild.

In the Kent St game, we started off throwing nothing but deep balls. Gabbert started off 1/9 and we only got one first down on our first three drives. Against BG we threw hardly any deep balls and we only punted once the whole game on seven drives.

I don’t think you need constant deep balls to keep the medium passing game open.

Agreed! Fades and go routs only take corners only with them. Slants can draw safety w/corner. Whatever you run 3-17 not working.

Interesting graph but to me it does not make sense. If it is point differential why is Toledo higher than Miami WMU, 13 points and Georgia Vanderbilt 17points. Toledo won by 7. Am I reading the graph wrong?

Long story short, it has to do with success (really how many expected points each play adds). A team with a worse EPA can win because of things like turnovers, special teams, etc.

As an example, a 2 yard rush on 3rd and 10 from your own 20 would likely have negative expected points. You’re now going to punt and give the other team good field position. A play that takes you from your own 10 to the opposing 20 would have a large EPA since you flipped the field and put yourself in field goal position with a chance for a touchdown still. Basically, are you putting yourself in a position to score and making it harder for the other team to do the same.

This website is updated every few weeks (doesn’t account for BG or WMU yet), but our offense and defense are both very good in this regard.

https://www.cfb-graphs.com/

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Got it, thanks for the tutorial!

This is is an interesting discussion and highlights one of CM’s weak points-since he arrived in Oxford he never has had the patience for a short passing/posession game. If you go back and look at play by play summaries of previous games you can see the number of drives we have wasted and games lost due to over emphasis on unproductive long balls. The BG game was an exception and look at the great result. We need to use our running backs out of the back field, TE’s , quick out routes,slants, quick come back routes etc much more frequently- Brett and our receivers can function well in this type of offense with occasional deep routes. Although CM is very set in his ways hopefully he and his staff will go back to the BG type game plan for Saturday. BTW why didn’t CM use his time outs toward the end of the first half at WMU - we could have gotten into field position for a FG which could have been critical for the game outcome. Like everyone else on this site I certainly like our record but I continue to believe we could be even be better - the player talent is there but the HC has to be more strategic.

BTW get your ass to OXvegas this Sat- coming in from Boise with my son. This game should be SRO!

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CalHawk-come find me. We’ll grill you up some lunch! Burgers, brats, chicken sandwich…what’s your fav? Making a trip like that you get the royal red & white welcome.

Call your friends! Fill the joint up!!!

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Daverama - where in the parking lot do you tailgate;

I think we may have gone to the same high school - always a Pioneer!

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CaloHawk…OMG! “Cheer For Our Greenhills!”

This is Dave Mayer, Greenhills Sr. High School Class of 74 by the way. Who am I “talking” to?

Our old GH stomping grounds are gone and now it’s a middle school. Fields of glory gone.

We live in Columbus and leave early and get there about 12ish so plenty early to get into the Millett lot. We’ll get some extra burgers and brats!

Think you can PM me if you click the button. If not leave info in this thread and we can talk and plan something.

This will be a blast! I’ll dig out my old GHS letter jacket. It won’t fit and will probably have moths flying out of it but it’l be fun!

“Hail to thee oh Alma Mater…Hail the Green and White!”

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Green and White, eh? They’ll think you’re a Marshall fan who drank too much shine, read the wrong year’s Herd football schedule and thought it was 2017.

At least your jacket’s not midnight blue and gold.

Check your PMs; I am not so sure about wearing my old letter jacket - it may be cold & wet, so may need something waterproof.

Nescacdad–Marshall sucks! Proud to be a Pioneer. I was proud to wear the Green & White! Read up in Wikipedia about Greenhills, OH. Bit of history early on I’d like to change. It was developed in the 30’s as a depression era project championed by Eleanor Roosevelt. Lots of info on Greenbelt communities on line. My mom and the Murphy family were the 7th family (I"ve been told) to move into Greenhills, as it was being built. I lived in their place when my grandparents passed. It was a wonderful place to grow up in in the 70’s.

I graduated a Pioneer and, even though the school is long gone, I will always be a proud Pioneer! The Green and White forever…Marshall never! Love & Honor!

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Dave, Long live the Pioneer spirit!

As you know from our previous correspondence although I lived most of my youth out in Terrace Park and went to Mariemont HS, I lived in your neighbor community of Finneutown until I was 10 and our family moved to the east side to be closer to my Dad’s office.

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