Expected Wins

SP+ has a metric called postgame win probability, which measures how likely each team is to win a game based on the statistics of that game. So far this season, our postgame win probabilities are:

0.0% Cincinnati
66.8% Minnesota
100.0% LIU
20.2% Army
92.6% CMU
73.2% EMU
98.7% Akron
84.5% Ball St
73.6% Ohio
100.0% Buffalo
96.8% Bowling Green

We were the more likely team to win in 9 out of 11 games so far this season and our expected win total is 8.1. The only teams with worse records relative to their expected records are Nebraska (-3.3), Colorado St (-2.6), and Toledo (-2.4).

Thinking about how differently this team and this season would be perceived if we were something like 8-3 (7-0) right now. We’ve been the best team in the conference over the past few years, but it just feels like we can never get that true breakthrough season.


I think people assume that good teams in MAC never lose to bad teams. Kent was absolutely destroyed by WMU, the worst team in the west. Buffalo lost to BG. Go back any season and I would bet the majority of years, the teams in the championship have at least one head scratching loss. Having the best record in the MAC over the last several years is really hard.

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Personally I think WMU and CMU are the best teams in the west. I would predict both of them to beat us or Kent.

I honestly think NIU may be the worst team in the west and there is a great opportunity for the MAC East champ

We already beat CMU and WMU was last in the West before beating beating an NIU team that didn’t show up. Can the last place team be the best? Only if there really is significant parity and consistently winning in the MAC is more difficult than people think.


Statistics are always fun to look at, but when it comes to collegiate athletics in particular, they will never be reliable. Talent and coaching can certainly put a team in position to win most of the time, but the normal variables that affect athletic contests are amplified even more when it comes to teenagers playing as physical and emotional of a game as football.

I think the majority of us feel we should have elusive jackalope (OOC win vs Minnesota)…and should be 8-3 or 9-2…

Western destroyed NIU last night or whenever it was…I assume those few moments I watched were live…

So yeah…we beat CMU, EMU should have happened…OU was just a cluster, it happens.

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The entire West is bowl-eligible, and WMU beat either the best or second-best team in the ACC. Obviously they’re at the bottom, but it ain’t like they’re Akron.