Bowl Projections

Men's Sports Football
21

For me it’s kind of MAC title or bust (considering another winless FBS OOC plus a loss to OU), but have we essentially clinched a bowl bid?

22

ESPN’s updated projections:

Boca Bowl vs ODU
NM Bowl vs Nevada

Also of note: both have Coastal Carolina playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

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23

So a bowl game (and more) is guaranteed with a win at Kent. Things get dicey with a loss and a 6-6 record but even in the worst case scenario (considered to be the worst 6-6 team available), a bowl game still seems likely. Fortunately there is a nice breakdown of the situation here:

Bowl Bubble: Bowl Eligible Teams, Who’s In, Who’s Out, Week 12

And here:

Bowl-Eligible College Football Teams (After Week 12)

Basically there are 82 bowl teams and 72 teams are now eligible. 22 others can still gain bowl eligibility but all 22 won’t (since some go head-to-head). Here are the remaining 22 teams that could clog up bowl slots:

  1. Memphis (vs Tulane)
  2. Tulsa (@ SMU)
  3. Florida State (@ Florida)
  4. Syracuse (vs Pitt)
  5. Virginia Tech (@ Virginia)
  6. Maryland (@ Rutgers)
  7. Rutgers (vs Maryland)
  8. TCU (@ Iowa State)
  9. West Virginia (@ Kansas)
  10. Charlotte (@ ODU)
  11. FAU (@ MTSU)
  12. MTSU (vs FAU)
  13. North Texas (@ UTSA)
  14. ODU (@ Charlotte)
  15. Ball State (vs Buffalo)
  16. San Jose State (vs Fresno State)
  17. Cal (@ UCLA, vs USC)
  18. USC (vs BYU, @ Cal)
  19. Florida (vs Florida State)
  20. LSU (vs Texas A&M)
  21. South Alabama (vs Coastal Carolina)
  22. Troy (@ Georgia State)

The winners of Florida/Florida State, Maryland/Rutgers, Charlotte/ODU, FAU/MTSU games are guaranteed to reach eligibility and the losers are out. So that brings the total to 76 bowl eligible teams with 14 still on the bubble…

Likely losses (at least based on ESPN’s FPI):
Tulsa - WON
Syracuse - LOST
Virginia Tech - WON
TCU - LOST
North Texas - WON
San Jose State - LOST
Cal
USC
LSU - WON
South Alabama - LOST
Troy - LOST

Likely wins:
Memphis - WON
West Virginia - WON
Ball State - WON

Of course, some likely losses (VT, LSU) wouldn’t be shockers if they went the other way, while it’s highly unlikely that UNT beats UTSA or South Alabama beats Coastal. Basically, several upsets are required to have at least 82 teams with 6 wins.

Just beat Kent and this whole thing is irrelevant.

TL;DR: Beat Kent.

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24

Thanks for the analysis…my bottom line is that backing into a bowl game w a 6-6 record is not terribly exciting (to put it mildly). Beat Kent and earn a MACC berth, a bowl slot and guarantee we won’t finished a losing record.

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25

SI is getting quite sloppy. In this update, they’ve got both Coastal and Eastern penciled into two separate bowl games. They have Miami facing Rutgers in Detroit.

26

Miami has not gone to a bowl without winning at least a share of their division/conference since 1962. We came in 3rd that year and lost the Tangerine Bowl to Houston.

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27

The link now leads to the 404 error. They must be tweaking it.

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28

Yeah, but that’s because Miami wasn’t very good when the explosion of bowls happened. Not because it’s a prerequisite to get into a bowl game.

29

Jive is correct. I remember after Big Ben left (along w Marshall to C-USA), most of the posters on the Miami board figured w the proliferation of bowls we’d likely see Miami in a bowl almost every year…after all, in most years since all it took was a 7-5 record. Alas, it was not to be…

30

Well, yea, obviously. I just thought it was an interesting note.

31

Here’s the list they’ll be using to determine what 5-7 teams - if any - get a bowl. My understanding is that you need to be in the top 5 to be considered.

Looks like Washington has the highest APR in the nation at 999 and could finish 5-7 if they upset WAZZU in the Apple Cup. Not sure they’d accept a bowl bid given the sad state of affairs in Seattle. The next two highest teams on the list - Northwestern and Stanford - can not finish 5-7.

32

The TV crew on the Ball State game said the Cardinals are probably headed to Nasssu.

33

This morning Yahoo Sports has us in the Frisco Bowl vs Wyoming. Nice matchup but it’s on a Tuesday night in the Dallas area. Pricey airfare!

34

Not that any of these matter (since many still have us playing in the Bahamas) but I think that is the first one that has us playing in the Frisco Bowl.

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35

Ball State won. Pulling for Fresno State on Thursday.

36

Kinda doubt that all 6-6 teams will be needed to fill the bowl slots…obviously depends how the games play out this weekend but there always seems to be a couple of upsets where 5-6 teams win against favored teams to get bowl eligible.

37

Fresno kills San Jose, that’s one 5-6 team to fall.

38

I saw one projection (I forget whom) having us in Boise vs. BSU.

39

Yep San Jose losing was a good start for 6-6 MAC squads wanting to grab a bowl slot…need much more of that to happen next couple days.

40

Here’s what’s left to get to 82 teams
72 have already qualified so they need 10 more. Only the four marked ELIMINATION are certainties this weekend, meaning 6 teams from the rest of the list qualify if they can win as underdogs. Because Hawaii plays 13 games in the regular season, they can qualify if they win at Wyoming. USC and Cal each need to win out and they play each other do one of them is an automatic goner next week. Washington, if it beats WAZZU tomorrow in the Apple Cup, would finish at 5-7 and with an APR of 999 would be at the top of the list of 5-7 teams.

It’s going to be interesting down the stretch!

Tulsa (SMU)
Florida State or Florida ELIMINATION
Syracuse (Pitt)
Maryland or Rutgers ELIMINATION
West Virginia (Kansas)
TCU (Iowa State)
ODU or Charlotte ELIMINATION
MTSU or FAU ELIMINATION
NTSU (UTSA)
Hawaii (Wyoming)
Cal 4-6 (UCLA and USC)
USC 4-6 (BYU and Cal)
LSU (Texas AM)
Troy (Georgia State)
South Alabama (Coastal)