# 2026 MAC Tournament Projections **URL:** \ **Category:** Men's Basketball\ **Created:** [February 1, 2026, 4:46am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954 "2026-02-01T04:46:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2026, 4:46am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/1 "2026-02-01T04:46:00Z")
January games are over. It’s time to start paying attention to how this will shake out. 1. Miami 10-0 2. Akron 9-1 3. Kent 7-3 4. Toledo 6-4 5. OU 6-5 6. UMass 5-6 7. Buffalo 4-6 8. BG 4-6 9. Ball St. 3-6 10. Central 3-7 11. Eastern 3-7 12. NIU 3-7 13. Western 2-7 A big part of me still focuses on defending home court and stealing road victories. Ideally, finishing 1st would be ideal to avoid Akron or Kent until a tournament final. Other notes include OU sweeping Buffalo. Buffalo and BG have been playing themselves out of Cleveland. UMass has played so many close games, they could play themselves higher. They also have 4 of their last 7 at home, including a game against us. ---
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2026, 4:13am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/2 "2026-02-04T04:13:34Z")
A little movement after tonight’s play: 1. Miami 11-0 2. Akron 10-1 3. Kent 8-3 4. OU 7-5 5. Toledo 6-5 6. UMass 6-6 7. BG 5-6 8. Buffalo 4-7 9. Ball St. 3-7 10. NIU 3-7 11. Central 3-8 12. Eastern 3-8 13. Western 2-8 By winning tonight, we clinched a trip to Cleveland. Kent’s comeback win puts them solidly in the 3 spot. They have tiebreakers on Toledo and OU. They may have the easiest schedule left. UMass has won 6 of 8 after losing their first 4 MAC games. Interestingly as I type this, their offense and defense both rank 184th in D-1. ---
**Author:** ![mollautt](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/mollautt/32/63_2.png) [@mollautt](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mollautt)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2026, 4:41am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/3 "2026-02-04T04:41:12Z")
[https://x.com/i/status/2018883333997117744](https://x.com/i/status/2018883333997117744) ---
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2026, 5:15am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/4 "2026-02-15T05:15:50Z")
After today: 1. Miami 12-0 2. Akron 11-1 3. Kent 10-3 4. Toledo 7-6 5. BG 7-6 6. OU 7-6 7. UMass 6-7 8. Buffalo 5-7 9. Central 4-8 10. Ball St. 3-9 11. NIU 3-9 12. Western 3-9 13. Eastern 3-10 I’m projecting a Toledo win over OU which would give them the edge in a 3-way with BG and OU. Central could have a say in who’s #8. They have Eastern and Western before they play Buffalo. It’s meaningless, but we can’t finish worse than 6th now. ---
**Author:** ![yanksalex](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/yanksalex/32/31_2.png) [@yanksalex](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/yanksalex)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2026, 1:22am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/5 "2026-02-16T01:22:47Z")
I project that you should give $250 in honor of our 25-0 record. > **[Field of 68 - Miami University RedHawks](https://miamiredhawks.com/sports/2020/11/6/field-of-68)** > > During the 2024-25 season, Miami Men’s Basketball posted a 25-9 overall record – program best since the 1998-99 season. Records were broken, but expectations... ---
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 5:41am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/6 "2026-02-18T05:41:21Z")
After tonight. 1. Miami 13-0 2. Akron 12-1 3. Kent 11-3 4. OU 8-6 5. Toledo 7-6 6. BG 7-7 7. UMass 6-8 8. Buffalo 5-8 9. Central 4-9 10. NIU 4-9 11. Eastern 4-10 12. Ball St. 3-10 13. Western 3-10 With tonight’s win, we can’t finish lower than 3rd. UMass controls their MAC tournament destiny with games against Buffalo and BG to come. ---
**Author:** ![Bluesman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/bluesman/32/45_2.png) [@Bluesman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Bluesman)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 1:43pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/7 "2026-02-18T13:43:43Z")
![image](https://miamihawktalk.fans/uploads/default/original/2X/0/0211a152b6af5704cfd7893d41806947903cd1ce.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_and\_Honor](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/love_and_honor/32/38_2.png) [@Love\_and\_Honor](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Love_and_Honor)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 2:49pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/8 "2026-02-18T14:49:24Z")
The way things are going I wouldn’t be surprised if NIU snuck into UB’s spot. I certainly wouldn’t mind that matchup on Thursday. ---
**Author:** ![Hoosierhawk](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/hoosierhawk/32/21_2.png) [@Hoosierhawk](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Hoosierhawk)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 2:50pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/9 "2026-02-18T14:50:20Z")
Will certainly depend on how many games Freitag misses. UB is a good, solid MAC team when he is playing. When he doesn’t they are literally a bottom 2 or 3 MAC team. He’s that type of impact player. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Sackman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/the_sackman/32/14_2.png) [@The\_Sackman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/The_Sackman)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 2:58pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/10 "2026-02-18T14:58:09Z")
Relying on Bald Bull Batchelor to do anything positive is a bad thing. ---
**Author:** ![dudis41](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/dudis41/32/95_2.png) [@dudis41](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/dudis41)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 3:08pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/11 "2026-02-18T15:08:33Z")
Somebody said somewhere on here (I guess it’s a good problem to have that we have so many active threads now I can’t remember where this came from) that the thought on the Buff message boards was that Frietang maybe sitting out the rest of the year to preserve his earning potential in the portal. If it is a lingering concussion that he has, I could certainly see not wanting to get another one in advance of what might be the biggest payday of his life. ---
**Author:** ![Mid90sGlory](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/b77776/32.png) [@Mid90sGlory](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Mid90sGlory)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 3:21pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/12 "2026-02-18T15:21:21Z")
Maybe I’m saying this because Miami and Akron’s records are so good this year, but would it make better sense for the MAC to give a better advantage to the top few seeds? 5 could play 8 and 6 could play 7. Winner of 5 v 8 plays the 4 seed. Winner of 6 and 7 could play the 3 seed. Then the winners of those games play the 1 and the 2. Gives an advantage to the 1 and 2. Gives a disadvantage to the 5-8. Nothing changes for 3 and 4. ---
**Author:** ![dudis41](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/dudis41/32/95_2.png) [@dudis41](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/dudis41)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 3:24pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/13 "2026-02-18T15:24:37Z")
A lot of the smaller conferences do something like this to help ensure their regular season winner (and presumed best team) has the best shot to get the automatic bid. ---
**Author:** ![DevilGrad](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/devilgrad/32/3150_2.png) [@DevilGrad](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/DevilGrad)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 3:25pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/14 "2026-02-18T15:25:37Z")
All I know is that I want to see UMass playing someone else in the first round. That team is flawed, but they compete their asses off and will be a tough out in Cleveland. ---
**Author:** ![Hoosierhawk](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/hoosierhawk/32/21_2.png) [@Hoosierhawk](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Hoosierhawk)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 3:27pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/15 "2026-02-18T15:27:04Z")
It just depends on the year. There are some years where 1-4 are basically tie breakers, so then you are giving huge advantage to teams over others that are basically equal. In other years like this one where you have 1 or 2 clear best teams, it does feel like they have earned something. Ultimately, I’m ok with just the flat bracket of 8. The beauty of the current MAC is that one magical weekend in Cleveland can deliver you to the promise land, and I kind of love that. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_and\_Honor](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/love_and_honor/32/38_2.png) [@Love\_and\_Honor](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Love_and_Honor)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2026, 4:49pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/16 "2026-02-18T16:49:25Z")
Having byes makes sense for a conference like the WCC given the huge difference between Gonzaga/St. Mary’s and everyone else. The MAC has its good programs and cellar dwellers, but the top half of the conference is pretty comparable in resources (and usually team strength), I’m fine with the current format. Winning three games in three games is difficult but it probably results in the best team making the big dance most seasons. ---
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 4:04am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/17 "2026-02-22T04:04:48Z")
2 weeks to go. 1. Miami 14-0 2. Akron 13-1 3. Kent 11-3 4. OU 9-6 5. Toledo 8-6 6. BGSU 7-8 7. Buffalo 6-8 8. UMass 6-9 9. Central 5-9 10. NIU 4-10 11. Eastern 4-11 12. Ball St. 3-11 13. Western 3-11 When we play Eastern and Western this week, they’ll be playing for their MAC Tournament lives. OU and Toledo seem to be heading for the 4/5 though they play this Saturday. BG only has 3 games left, 2 of which are against Western and Eastern. 9-9 seems a minimum for them. UMass could be 9-9, 8-10, or 7-11 with games against BG and OU. Buffalo goes to Akron in their 2nd matchup. But they finish with home games against Central and Eastern and a trip to Toledo, the 1st time they’ve played all of those teams this year. That seems like weird scheduling. ---
**Author:** ![Cincykid3](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/c/54ee81/32.png) [@Cincykid3](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Cincykid3)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 3:46pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/18 "2026-02-23T15:46:43Z")
Not sure where to paste this, but in ESPN NCAA section on line today, Joe Lunardi updates at large prospects metrics, and in the verbiage notes that Miami is looking better than previously thought. Not sure if he meant with just one loss in MAC tourney or possibly we’d get in the NCAA final four in w one regular season loss and another in MAC tourney. Take a look and see what you think. ---
**Author:** ![Bluesman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/user_avatar/miamihawktalk.fans/bluesman/32/45_2.png) [@Bluesman](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/Bluesman)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 4:05pm UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/19 "2026-02-23T16:05:00Z")
I think this article pretty accurately breaks down the possibilities. Just win and then we don’t have to worry about this shit! > **[Breaking down Miami's NCAA Tournament scenarios: How many games could...](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-miami-ohio-ncaa-tournament-selection-scenarios-redhawks-bracketology/)** > > Can the Redhawks get into the NCAA Tournament with a loss? What about two or three losses? Here's the rundown ---
**Author:** ![mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@mz343](https://miamihawktalk.fans/u/mz343)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2026, 4:45am UTC](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954/20 "2026-02-25T04:45:54Z")
3 Game Windows Left. This weekend’s window has head-to-head matchups that have major implications. 1. Miami 15-0 2. Akron 14-1 3. Kent 12-3 4. Toledo 9-6 5. OU 9-6 6. BG 7-9 7. Buffalo 6-9 8. UMass 6-10 9. Central 5-10 10. Ball St. 4-11 11. NIU 4-11 12. Western 4-11 13. Eastern 4-12 This weekend’s matchups are: Miami at Western. Our magic number is 2, so a win and an Akron loss get us the #1 seed. Western needs to win to stay alive for Cleveland. Akron at Kent. A Kent win might give us the 1 seed on Friday and improve Kent’s metrics. Toledo at OU. A likely preview of the 4/5 game. UMass at BG. Whoever wins is probably in Cleveland. The loser puts themselves in trouble of missing out. Central at Buffalo. See above with UMass and BG. Ball St. at NIU. An elimination game. [Next page](https://miamihawktalk.fans/t/2026-mac-tournament-projections/5954.md?page=2)